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| DOI | 10.1038/s41561-022-00960-z |
| Eruption at basaltic calderas forecast by magma flow rate | |
| Galetto F.; Acocella V.; Hooper A.; Bagnardi M. | |
| 发表日期 | 2022 |
| ISSN | 1752-0894 |
| 起始页码 | 580 |
| 结束页码 | 584 |
| 卷号 | 15期号:7 |
| 英文摘要 | Forecasting eruption is the ultimate challenge for volcanology. While there has been some success in forecasting eruptions hours to days beforehand, reliable forecasting on a longer timescale remains elusive. Here we show that magma inflow rate, derived from surface deformation, is an indicator of the probability of magma transfer towards the surface, and thus eruption, for basaltic calderas. Inflow rates ≥0.1 km3 yr−1 promote magma propagation and eruption within 1 year in all assessed case studies, whereas rates <0.01 km3 yr−1 do not lead to magma propagation in 89% of cases. We explain these behaviours with a viscoelastic model where the relaxation timescale controls whether the critical overpressure for dyke propagation is reached or not. Therefore, while surface deformation alone is a weak precursor of eruption, estimating magma inflow rates at basaltic calderas provides improved forecasting, substantially enhancing our capacity of forecasting weeks to months ahead of a possible eruption. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited. |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| scopus关键词 | basalt; deformation; magma; model; timescale |
| 来源期刊 | Nature Geoscience
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/262173 |
| 作者单位 | Dipartimento di Scienze, Università degli Studi di Roma Tre, Rome, Italy |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Galetto F.； Acocella V.； Hooper A.； Bagnardi M.. Eruption at basaltic calderas forecast by magma flow rate[J],2022,15(7). |
| APA | Galetto F.； Acocella V.； Hooper A.； Bagnardi M..(2022).Eruption at basaltic calderas forecast by magma flow rate.Nature Geoscience,15(7). |
| MLA | Galetto F.； Acocella V.； Hooper A.； Bagnardi M.."Eruption at basaltic calderas forecast by magma flow rate".Nature Geoscience 15.7(2022). |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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