气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Atmospheric dynamic constraints on Tibetan Plateau freshwater under Paris climate targets

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-020-00974-8
	Atmospheric dynamic constraints on Tibetan Plateau freshwater under Paris climate targets
	Wang, Tao; Zhao, Yutong; Xu, Chaoyi; Ciais, Philippe; Liu, Dan; Yang, Hui; Piao, Shilong; Yao, Tandong
通讯作者	Wang, T (通讯作者)
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1758-678X
EISSN	1758-6798
卷号	11 期号:3
英文摘要	Rivers originating in the Tibetan Plateau provide freshwater to downstream populations, yet runoff projections from warming are unclear due to precipitation uncertainties. Here, we use a historical atmospheric circulation-precipitation relationship to constrain future modelled wet-season precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau. Our constraint reduces precipitation increases to half of those from the unconstrained ensemble and reduces spread by around a factor of three. This constrained precipitation is used with estimated glacier melt contributions to constrain future runoff for seven rivers. We estimate runoff increases of 1.0-7.2% at the end of the twenty-first century for global mean warming of 1.5-4 degrees C above pre-industrial levels. Because population projections diverge across basins, this runoff increase will reduce the population fraction living under water scarcity conditions in the Yangtze and Yellow basins but not in the Indus and Ganges basins, necessitating improved water security through climate change adaptation policies in these regions at higher risk.
关键词	PRECIPITATION SIMULATION DELTA-O-18 PATHWAYS RUNOFF LEVEL BASIN MELT
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000607033900001
来源期刊	NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/260500
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang, Tao,Zhao, Yutong,Xu, Chaoyi,et al. Atmospheric dynamic constraints on Tibetan Plateau freshwater under Paris climate targets[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2021,11(3).
APA	Wang, Tao.,Zhao, Yutong.,Xu, Chaoyi.,Ciais, Philippe.,Liu, Dan.,...&Yao, Tandong.(2021).Atmospheric dynamic constraints on Tibetan Plateau freshwater under Paris climate targets.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,11(3).
MLA	Wang, Tao,et al."Atmospheric dynamic constraints on Tibetan Plateau freshwater under Paris climate targets".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 11.3(2021).