气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Prediction of the impact of climate change on fast-growing timber trees in China

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DOI	10.1016/j.foreco.2021.119653
	Prediction of the impact of climate change on fast-growing timber trees in China
	Zhao, Zefang; Guo, Yanlong; Zhu, Fuxin; Jiang, Yuan
通讯作者	Jiang, Y (通讯作者)
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0378-1127
EISSN	1872-7042
卷号	501
英文摘要	Commercial logging in natural forests was banned in China in 2017, and plantations have become the main timber supply source; hence, fast-growing and high-yielding timber plantations will be an important solution for addressing large timber gaps in China, whether now or in the future. This study simulated the potential distribution area of 12 widely distributed fast-growing timber tree species based on a comprehensive habitat suitability (CHS) model, and we also analysed the potential distribution area of these 12 species under different projected future climate change scenarios. The future climate change scenarios were defined as four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs: SSP 1-2.6, SSP 2-4.5, SSP 3-7.0, and SSP 5-8.5) and four periods (2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100) based on nine global circulation models. The results indicated that these 12 species were widely distributed in China, and the potential distribution areas ranged from 1.11 x 106 km2 to 2.81 x 106 km2, mainly in South China, Northeast China and North China. There were dynamic potential distribution area changes with varying degrees of temperature increase; by the end of this century, under the most moderate warming scenario (SSP 1-2.6) in which the average temperature increase will be 2.41 degrees C, most species will expand their potential distribution area, and only 4 species will experience decreases. In the most severe warming scenario (SSP 5-8.5) in which the average temperature increase will be 6.8 degrees C, 7 species experienced considerable decreases in their potential distribution area with severe habitat fragmentation, while the potential suitable habitats of the other 5 species increased significantly, with an average growth rate of 30.79%. Hence, climate change will bring great uncertainty to fast-growing timber tree planting in China, and adequate attention should be given to planning resource management and planting in the future.
关键词	SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS SELECTION ELEVATION ACCURACY
英文关键词	Timber trees; Comprehensive habitat suitability model; Ecological niche; Climate change; Species distribution
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Forestry
WOS类目	Forestry
WOS记录号	WOS:000701903300008
来源期刊	FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/260151
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhao, Zefang,Guo, Yanlong,Zhu, Fuxin,et al. Prediction of the impact of climate change on fast-growing timber trees in China[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2021,501.
APA	Zhao, Zefang,Guo, Yanlong,Zhu, Fuxin,&Jiang, Yuan.(2021).Prediction of the impact of climate change on fast-growing timber trees in China.FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT,501.
MLA	Zhao, Zefang,et al."Prediction of the impact of climate change on fast-growing timber trees in China".FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT 501(2021).