气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Emergent constraint on crop yield response to warmer temperature from field experiments

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41893-020-0569-7
	Emergent constraint on crop yield response to warmer temperature from field experiments
	Wang, Xuhui; Zhao, Chuang; Mueller, Christoph; Wang, Chenzhi; Ciais, Philippe; Janssens, Ivan; Penuelas, Josep; Asseng, Senthold; Li, Tao; Elliott, Joshua; Huang, Yao; Li, Laurent; Piao, Shilong
通讯作者	Wang, XH (通讯作者)
发表日期	2020
ISSN	2398-9629
起始页码	908
结束页码	916
卷号	3 期号:11
英文摘要	Responses of global crop yields to warmer temperatures are fundamental to sustainable development under climate change but remain uncertain. Here, we combined a global dataset of field warming experiments (48 sites) for wheat, maize, rice and soybean with gridded global crop models to produce field-data-constrained estimates on responses of crop yield to changes in temperature (S-T) with the emergent-constraint approach. Our constrained estimates show with >95% probability that warmer temperatures would reduce yields for maize (-7.1 +/- 2.8% K-1), rice (-5.6 +/- 2.0% K-1) and soybean (-10.6 +/- 5.8% K-1). For wheat,S(T)was 89% likely to be negative (-2.9 +/- 2.3% K-1). Uncertainties associated with modelledS(T)were reduced by 12-54% for the four crops but data constraints do not allow for further disentanglingS(T)of different crop types. A key implication for impact assessments after the Paris Agreement is that direct warming impacts alone will reduce major crop yields by 3-13% under 2 K global warming without considering CO(2)fertilization effects and adaptations. Even if warming was limited to 1.5 K, all major producing countries would still face notable warming-induced yield reduction. This yield loss could be partially offset by projected benefits from elevated CO2, whose magnitude remains uncertain, and highlights the challenge to compensate it by autonomous adaptation. Global responses of crops to warmer temperatures will affect agricultural sustainability. This study of maize, rice, soybean and wheat projects yield reductions of 3-13% under 2 degrees C warming.
关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE WHEAT YIELD CARBON-DIOXIDE MAJOR CROPS IMPACTS GROWTH MODELS CO2 SENSITIVITY ENSEMBLES
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS记录号	WOS:000544156000005
来源期刊	NATURE SUSTAINABILITY
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/260111
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang, Xuhui,Zhao, Chuang,Mueller, Christoph,et al. Emergent constraint on crop yield response to warmer temperature from field experiments[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2020,3(11).
APA	Wang, Xuhui.,Zhao, Chuang.,Mueller, Christoph.,Wang, Chenzhi.,Ciais, Philippe.,...&Piao, Shilong.(2020).Emergent constraint on crop yield response to warmer temperature from field experiments.NATURE SUSTAINABILITY,3(11).
MLA	Wang, Xuhui,et al."Emergent constraint on crop yield response to warmer temperature from field experiments".NATURE SUSTAINABILITY 3.11(2020).