气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Differentiating Snow and Glacier Melt Contribution to Runoff in the Gilgit River Basin via Degree-Day Modelling Approach

CCPortal

DOI	10.3390/atmos11101023
	Differentiating Snow and Glacier Melt Contribution to Runoff in the Gilgit River Basin via Degree-Day Modelling Approach
	Latif, Yasir; Ma, Yaoming; Ma, Weiqiang; Muhammad, Sher; Adnan, Muhammad; Yaseen, Muhammad; Fealy, Rowan
通讯作者	Latif, Y (通讯作者)
发表日期	2020
EISSN	2073-4433
卷号	11 期号:10
英文摘要	In contrast to widespread glacier retreat evidenced globally, glaciers in the Karakoram region have exhibited positive mass balances and general glacier stability over the past decade. Snow and glacier meltwater from the Karakoram and the western Himalayas, which supplies the Indus River Basin, provide an essential source of water to more than 215 million people, either directly, as potable water, or indirectly, through hydroelectric generation and irrigation for crops. This study focuses on water resources in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) which combines the ranges of the Hindukush, Karakoram and Himalaya (HKH). Specifically, we focus on the Gilgit River Basin (GRB) to inform more sustainable water use policy at the sub-basin scale. We employ two degree-day approaches, the Spatial Processes in Hydrology (SPHY) and Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM), to simulate runoff in the GRB during 2001-2012. The performance of SRM was poor during July and August, the period when glacier melt contribution typically dominates runoff. Consequently, SPHY outperformed SRM, likely attributable to SPHY's ability to discriminate between glacier, snow, and rainfall contributions to runoff during the ablation period. The average simulated runoff revealed the prevalent snowmelt contribution as 62%, followed by the glacier melt 28% and rainfall 10% in GRB. We also assessed the potential impact of climate change on future water resources, based on two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). We estimate that summer flows are projected to increase by between 5.6% and 19.8% due to increased temperatures of between 0.7 and 2.6 degrees C over the period 2039-2070. If realized, increased summer flows in the region could prove beneficial for a range of sectors, but only over the short to medium term and if not associated with extreme events. Long-term projections indicate declining water resources in the region in terms of snow and glacier melt.
关键词	WESTERN HIMALAYA CLIMATE-CHANGE MASS BALANCES INDUS BASIN KARAKORAM DEBRIS ICE PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURE COVER
英文关键词	Upper Indus Basin; Gilgit River Basin; snowmelt runoff; SPHY; glacier melt; SRM
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000585648100001
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERE
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/259961
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Latif, Yasir,Ma, Yaoming,Ma, Weiqiang,et al. Differentiating Snow and Glacier Melt Contribution to Runoff in the Gilgit River Basin via Degree-Day Modelling Approach[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2020,11(10).
APA	Latif, Yasir.,Ma, Yaoming.,Ma, Weiqiang.,Muhammad, Sher.,Adnan, Muhammad.,...&Fealy, Rowan.(2020).Differentiating Snow and Glacier Melt Contribution to Runoff in the Gilgit River Basin via Degree-Day Modelling Approach.ATMOSPHERE,11(10).
MLA	Latif, Yasir,et al."Differentiating Snow and Glacier Melt Contribution to Runoff in the Gilgit River Basin via Degree-Day Modelling Approach".ATMOSPHERE 11.10(2020).