气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Impacts of prior parameter distributions on Bayesian evaluation of groundwater model complexity

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DOI	10.1016/j.wse.2018.06.001
	Impacts of prior parameter distributions on Bayesian evaluation of groundwater model complexity
	Samani, Saeideh; Ye, Ming; Zhang, Fan; Pei, Yong-Zhen; Tang, Guo-ping; Elshall, Ahmed; Moghaddam, Asghar A.
通讯作者	Ye, M (通讯作者)
发表日期	2018
ISSN	1674-2370
EISSN	2405-8106
起始页码	89
结束页码	100
卷号	11 期号:2
英文摘要	This study used the marginal likelihood and Bayesian posterior model probability for evaluation of model complexity in order to avoid using over-complex models for numerical simulations. It focused on investigation of the impacts of prior parameter distributions (involved in calculating the marginal likelihood) on the evaluation of model complexity. We argue that prior parameter distributions should define the parameter space in which numerical simulations are made. New perspectives on the prior parameter distribution and posterior model probability were demonstrated in an example of groundwater solute transport modeling with four models, each simulating four column experiments. The models had different levels of complexity in terms of their model structures and numbers of calibrated parameters. The posterior model probability was evaluated for four cases with different prior parameter distributions. While the distributions substantially impacted model ranking, the model ranking in each case was reasonable for the specific circumstances in which numerical simulations were made. For evaluation of model complexity, it is thus necessary to determine the parameter spaces for modeling, which can be done by conducting numerical simulation and using engineering judgment based on understanding of the system being studied. (c) 2018 Hohai University. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
关键词	SENSITIVITY-ANALYSIS FLOW UNCERTAINTY SIMPLICITY TRANSPORT IDENTIFICATION PROBABILITIES SELECTION
英文关键词	Marginal likelihood; Posterior model probability; Advection-dispersion equation; Mobile-immobile model; Groundwater model
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Water Resources
WOS类目	Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:000441304000001
来源期刊	WATER SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/259327
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Samani, Saeideh,Ye, Ming,Zhang, Fan,et al. Impacts of prior parameter distributions on Bayesian evaluation of groundwater model complexity[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2018,11(2).
APA	Samani, Saeideh.,Ye, Ming.,Zhang, Fan.,Pei, Yong-Zhen.,Tang, Guo-ping.,...&Moghaddam, Asghar A..(2018).Impacts of prior parameter distributions on Bayesian evaluation of groundwater model complexity.WATER SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING,11(2).
MLA	Samani, Saeideh,et al."Impacts of prior parameter distributions on Bayesian evaluation of groundwater model complexity".WATER SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING 11.2(2018).