气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Hydrological response to future climate changes for the major upstream river basins in the Tibetan Plateau

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DOI	10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.10.012
	Hydrological response to future climate changes for the major upstream river basins in the Tibetan Plateau
	Su, F.; Zhang, L.; Ou, T.; Chen, D.; Yao, T.; Tong, K.; Qi, Y.
通讯作者	Su, F (通讯作者)
发表日期	2016
ISSN	0921-8181
EISSN	1872-6364
起始页码	82
结束页码	95
卷号	136
英文摘要	The impacts of future climate change on water balance for the headwater basins of six major rivers in the Tibetan Plateau are assessed using the well-established VIC-glacier land surface hydrological model driven by composite projections of 20 CMIP5 GCMs under scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. At the plateau scale, the annual precipitation is projected to increase by 5.0-10.0% in the near term (2011-2040) and 10.0-20.0% in the long term (2041-2070) relative to the reference period 1971-2000. The annual temperature is projected to increase for all the scenarios with the greatest warming in the northwest (2.0-4.0 degrees C) and least in the southeast (1.2-2.8 degrees C). The total runoff of the study basins would either remain stable or moderately increase in the near term, and increase by 2.7-22.4% in the long term relative to the reference period, as a result of increased rainfall-induced runoff for the upstream of the Yellow, Yangtze, Salween, and Mekong and increased glacier melt for the upper Indus. In the upper Brahmaputra, more than 50.0% of the total runoff increase is attributed to the increased glacier melt in the long run. The annual hydrograph remains practically unchanged for all the monsoon-dominated basins. However, for the westerly-controlled basin (upper Indus), an apparent earlier melt and a relatively large increase in spring runoff are observed for all the scenarios, which would increase water availability in the Indus Basin irrigation scheme during the spring growing season. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
关键词	RECENT GLACIAL RETREAT WATER-RESOURCES VIC-2L MODEL IMPACTS PRECIPITATION SIMULATION SCENARIOS RUNOFF CHINA SNOW
英文关键词	Tibetan Plateau; Future climate change; River runoff; Glacier melt; Hydrological response
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Physical Geography ; Geology
WOS类目	Geography, Physical ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS记录号	WOS:000369200800007
来源期刊	GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/258820
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Su, F.,Zhang, L.,Ou, T.,et al. Hydrological response to future climate changes for the major upstream river basins in the Tibetan Plateau[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2016,136.
APA	Su, F..,Zhang, L..,Ou, T..,Chen, D..,Yao, T..,...&Qi, Y..(2016).Hydrological response to future climate changes for the major upstream river basins in the Tibetan Plateau.GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE,136.
MLA	Su, F.,et al."Hydrological response to future climate changes for the major upstream river basins in the Tibetan Plateau".GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE 136(2016).