气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Implementation of Real-Time Flood Prediction and its Application to Dam Operations by Data Integration Analysis System

CCPortal

DOI	10.20965/jdr.2016.p1052
	Implementation of Real-Time Flood Prediction and its Application to Dam Operations by Data Integration Analysis System
	Shibuo, Yoshihiro; Ikoma, Eiji; Valeriano, Oliver Saavedra; Wang, Lei; Lawford, Peter; Kitsuregawa, Masaru; Koike, Toshio
通讯作者	Shibuo, Y (通讯作者)
发表日期	2016
ISSN	1881-2473
EISSN	1883-8030
起始页码	1052
结束页码	1061
卷号	11 期号:6
英文摘要	Despite recent advances in hydrological models and observation technology, the prediction of floods using advanced models and data has not yet been fully implemented for practical use. The major issues in prediction originate from the underlying uncertainty of the initial conditions of the basin and the accuracy of the precipitation forecast. Effective transmission of flood information to corresponding authorities is also necessary when considering countermeasures against an oncoming flood. We present in this article a data archive and model integrated system to overcome these issues. The system realizes flood forecasting by employing a land surface model coupled with hydrological model and an ensemble precipitation forecast model to address the accuracy of initial conditions and precipitation. While the Water and Energy Budget Based Distributed Hydrological Model (WEBDHM) rigorously estimates the physical state of the basin, the ensemble precipitation forecast model analyzes historical errors in forecasts and returns precipitation ensembles reflecting the uncertainty in the forecast specifically regarding the target basin. A combination of these models yields an ensemble of stream-flow forecasts. We further develop a virtual reservoir simulator to enhance the proactive use of forecast information to support decision making by reservoir managers. These models are integrated into the Data Integration Analysis System (DIAS). The feasibility of the system for practical use is tested against data from recent typhoon events.
关键词	UPPER TONE RIVER HYDROLOGICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION
英文关键词	data-archive and model integrated system; flood forecast; ensemble streamflow prediction; virtual reservoir simulator
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Geology
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS记录号	WOS:000448831700004
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF DISASTER RESEARCH
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/258803
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Shibuo, Yoshihiro,Ikoma, Eiji,Valeriano, Oliver Saavedra,et al. Implementation of Real-Time Flood Prediction and its Application to Dam Operations by Data Integration Analysis System[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2016,11(6).
APA	Shibuo, Yoshihiro.,Ikoma, Eiji.,Valeriano, Oliver Saavedra.,Wang, Lei.,Lawford, Peter.,...&Koike, Toshio.(2016).Implementation of Real-Time Flood Prediction and its Application to Dam Operations by Data Integration Analysis System.JOURNAL OF DISASTER RESEARCH,11(6).
MLA	Shibuo, Yoshihiro,et al."Implementation of Real-Time Flood Prediction and its Application to Dam Operations by Data Integration Analysis System".JOURNAL OF DISASTER RESEARCH 11.6(2016).