气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Has the advancing onset of spring vegetation green-up slowed down or changed abruptly over the last three decades?

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DOI	10.1111/geb.12289
	Has the advancing onset of spring vegetation green-up slowed down or changed abruptly over the last three decades?
	Wang, Xuhui; Piao, Shilong; Xu, Xiangtao; Ciais, Philippe; MacBean, Natasha; Myneni, Ranga B.; Li, Laurent
通讯作者	Piao, SL (通讯作者)
发表日期	2015
ISSN	1466-822X
EISSN	1466-8238
起始页码	621
结束页码	631
卷号	24 期号:6
英文摘要	AimChange in spring phenology is a sensitive indicator of ecosystem response to climate change, and exerts first-order control on the ecosystem carbon and hydrological cycles. The start of season (SOS) in spring can be estimated from satellite data using different spatiotemporal scales, data sets and algorithms. To address the impacts of these differences on trends of SOS, a Bayesian analysis is applied to investigate the rate of SOS advance and whether that advance has slowed down or changed abruptly over the last three decades. Location30 degrees-75 degrees N in the Northern Hemisphere. MethodsWe applied four algorithms to three different satellite data sets (AVHRR, Terra-MODIS and SPOT) to obtain an ensemble of SOS estimates. A Bayesian analysis was applied to test different hypotheses of SOS trends. ResultsOver the period 1982-2011, SOS is likely (74%) to have experienced a significant advance best described by a linear trend (-1.40.6 days decade(-1)). At hemispheric and continental scales, deceleration or abrupt changes in the SOS trend are unlikely (<30%) to have occurred. Trend analysis restricted to the last decade suggests no significant SOS advance since 2000. This lack of trend can be explained by large interannual variations of SOS and uncertainties in SOS extraction, in the context of a short-term decadal-period analysis. Spatial analyses show that SOS advance could have slowed down over parts of western North America, and the SOS trend could have abruptly changed over parts of Canada and Siberia. Main conclusionsSOS advance is unlikely to have slowed down or changed abruptly at a hemispheric scale over the last three decades. At a regional scale, SOS advance could have slowed down or abruptly changed due to changes in winter chilling or fire regimes. Trends of SOS derived from different satellites were within the uncertainties of SOS extraction.
关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE GROWING-SEASON PHENOLOGY TRENDS PLANT PHENOLOGY NORTH-AMERICA FIRE TEMPERATURE PERFORMANCE MANAGEMENT FEEDBACKS
英文关键词	Bayesian analysis; Northern Hemisphere; reversible-jump Markov-chain Monte-Carlo; satellite data; spring phenology; trend change
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Physical Geography
WOS类目	Ecology ; Geography, Physical
WOS记录号	WOS:000354121600002
来源期刊	GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/258602
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang, Xuhui,Piao, Shilong,Xu, Xiangtao,et al. Has the advancing onset of spring vegetation green-up slowed down or changed abruptly over the last three decades?[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2015,24(6).
APA	Wang, Xuhui.,Piao, Shilong.,Xu, Xiangtao.,Ciais, Philippe.,MacBean, Natasha.,...&Li, Laurent.(2015).Has the advancing onset of spring vegetation green-up slowed down or changed abruptly over the last three decades?.GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY,24(6).
MLA	Wang, Xuhui,et al."Has the advancing onset of spring vegetation green-up slowed down or changed abruptly over the last three decades?".GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY 24.6(2015).