气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projecting streamflow in the Tangwang River basin (China) using a rainfall generator and two hydrological models

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DOI	10.3354/cr01261
	Projecting streamflow in the Tangwang River basin (China) using a rainfall generator and two hydrological models
	Liu, Wenbin; Zhang, Aijing; Wang, Lei; Fu, Guobin; Chen, Deliang; Liu, Changming; Cai, Tijiu
通讯作者	Liu, WB (通讯作者)
发表日期	2015
ISSN	0936-577X
EISSN	1616-1572
起始页码	79
结束页码	97
卷号	62 期号:2
英文摘要	To estimate the impacts of future climate change on streamflow in the Tangwang River basin (TRB) in northeastern China, 2 hydrological models, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool and the Hydro-Informatic Modeling System, were used. These models are driven by future (2021-2050) local rainfall and temperature scenarios downscaled from global climate model (GCM) simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project under 2 emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 4.5 and RCP8.5). The downscaling of rainfall is done with the help of a multisite stochastic rainfall generator (MSRG), which extends the 'Richardson type' rainfall generator to a multisite approach using a modified series-independent and spatial-correlated random numbers method by linking its 4 parameters to large-scale circulations using least-squares regressions. An independent validation of the MSRG shows that it successfully preserves the major daily rainfall characteristics for wet and dry seasons. Relative to the reference period (1971-2000), the annual and wet season (April to October) streamflow during the future period (2021-2050) would decrease overall, which indicates that water resources and the potential flood risk would decline in the TRB. The slightly increased dry season (November to March) streamflow would, to some extent, contribute to the 'spring drought' over this region. Although rainfall is projected to remain un changed in the wet season and the whole year, the increased total evapotranspiration due to the increase in temperature would lead to a decline in total streamflow for this basin. The projected streamflow changes from multiple GCMs in this paper could provide a glimpse into a very plausible future for the water resource management community, and would hence provide valuable references for the sustainable management of water and forest ecosystems under a changing climate.
关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING MODELS DAILY PRECIPITATION NORTHEAST CHINA VARIABILITY RUNOFF FREQUENCY INTENSITY TRENDS PLAIN
英文关键词	Multisite stochastic rainfall generator; Statistical downscaling; CMIP5; Soil and Water Assessment Tool; SWAT; Hydro-Informatic Modeling System; HIMS; Climate change; Tangwang River
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000349412000001
来源期刊	CLIMATE RESEARCH
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/258581
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liu, Wenbin,Zhang, Aijing,Wang, Lei,et al. Projecting streamflow in the Tangwang River basin (China) using a rainfall generator and two hydrological models[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2015,62(2).
APA	Liu, Wenbin.,Zhang, Aijing.,Wang, Lei.,Fu, Guobin.,Chen, Deliang.,...&Cai, Tijiu.(2015).Projecting streamflow in the Tangwang River basin (China) using a rainfall generator and two hydrological models.CLIMATE RESEARCH,62(2).
MLA	Liu, Wenbin,et al."Projecting streamflow in the Tangwang River basin (China) using a rainfall generator and two hydrological models".CLIMATE RESEARCH 62.2(2015).