气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Committed changes in tropical tree cover under the projected 21st century climate change

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DOI	10.1038/srep01951
	Committed changes in tropical tree cover under the projected 21st century climate change
	Zeng, Zhenzhong; Piao, Shilong; Chen, Anping; Lin, Xin; Nan, Huijuan; Li, Junsheng; Ciais, Philippe
通讯作者	Piao, SL (通讯作者)
发表日期	2013
ISSN	2045-2322
卷号	3
英文摘要	Warming and drought pose a serious threat to tropical forest. Yet the extent of this threat is uncertain, given the lack of methods to evaluate the forest tree cover changes under future climate predicted by complex dynamic vegetation models. Here we develop an empirical approach based on the observed climate space of tropical trees to estimate the maximum potential tropical tree cover (MPTC) in equilibrium with a given climate. We show that compared to present-day (2000-2009) conditions, MPTC will be reduced by 1 to 15% in the tropical band under equilibrium future (2090-2099) climate conditions predicted by 19 IPCC climate models. Tropical forests are found to regress or disappear mainly in the current transition zones between forest and savanna ecosystems. This climate pressure on tropical forests, added to human-caused land use pressure, poses a grand challenge to the sustainability of the world's largest biomass carbon pool.
关键词	WOODY COVER CARBON-CYCLE FOREST WATER CO2 DEFORESTATION DETERMINANTS DIEBACK
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000319960300004
来源期刊	SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/258240
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zeng, Zhenzhong,Piao, Shilong,Chen, Anping,et al. Committed changes in tropical tree cover under the projected 21st century climate change[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2013,3.
APA	Zeng, Zhenzhong.,Piao, Shilong.,Chen, Anping.,Lin, Xin.,Nan, Huijuan.,...&Ciais, Philippe.(2013).Committed changes in tropical tree cover under the projected 21st century climate change.SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,3.
MLA	Zeng, Zhenzhong,et al."Committed changes in tropical tree cover under the projected 21st century climate change".SCIENTIFIC REPORTS 3(2013).