气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Tropical cyclone climatology change greatly exacerbates US extreme rainfall

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41558-021-01272-7
	Tropical cyclone climatology change greatly exacerbates US extreme rainfall–surge hazard
	Gori A.; Lin N.; Xi D.; Emanuel K.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	1758-678X
起始页码	171
结束页码	178
卷号	12 期号:2
英文摘要	Tropical cyclones (TCs) are drivers of extreme rainfall and surge, but the current and future TC rainfall–surge joint hazard has not been well quantified. Using a physics-based approach to simulate TC rainfall and storm tides, we show drastic increases in the joint hazard from historical to projected future (SSP5–8.5) conditions. The frequency of joint extreme events (exceeding both hazards’ historical 100-year levels) may increase by 7–36-fold in the southern US and 30–195-fold in the Northeast by 2100. This increase in joint hazard is induced by sea-level rise and TC climatology change; the relative contribution of TC climatology change is higher than that of sea-level rise for 96% of the coast, largely due to rainfall increases. Increasing storm intensity and decreasing translation speed are the main TC change factors that cause higher rainfall and storm tides and up to 25% increase in their dependence. © 2022, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climatology; extreme event; hazard assessment; rainfall; sea level change; storm; tropical cyclone; United States
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/256758
作者单位	Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Lorenz Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gori A.,Lin N.,Xi D.,等. Tropical cyclone climatology change greatly exacerbates US extreme rainfall–surge hazard[J],2022,12(2).
APA	Gori A.,Lin N.,Xi D.,&Emanuel K..(2022).Tropical cyclone climatology change greatly exacerbates US extreme rainfall–surge hazard.Nature Climate Change,12(2).
MLA	Gori A.,et al."Tropical cyclone climatology change greatly exacerbates US extreme rainfall–surge hazard".Nature Climate Change 12.2(2022).