气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Prospects for a saturation of humanity's resource use? An analysis of material stocks and flows in nine world regions from 1900 to 2035

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102410
	Prospects for a saturation of humanity's resource use? An analysis of material stocks and flows in nine world regions from 1900 to 2035
	Wiedenhofer D.; Fishman T.; Plank B.; Miatto A.; Lauk C.; Haas W.; Haberl H.; Krausmann F.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	71
英文摘要	Material stocks in infrastructure, buildings and machinery shape current and future resource use and emissions. Analyses of specific countries and selected materials suggest that material stocks might saturate, which would be important for a more sustainable social metabolism. However, it is unclear to what extent the evidence holds for a wider range of stocks and flows, as well as for world regions or globally. We present an inflow-driven dynamic stock-flow model for 14 bulk materials, end-of-life outflows, recycling, and waste flows for nine world regions from 1900 to 2015, extended with trend scenarios until 2035. Material stocks are growing in all regions and show little signs of saturation yet. In 2015, China used half of global stock-building materials, overtook everyone in stock size around 2012 and grows its stock at ∼8%/year. The Industrialized regions, including the Former Soviet Union, are slowly expanding their high stock levels at ∼1%/year. Stocks in all other regions, inhabited by 60% of the world population, grow at ∼3–5%/year. Inequalities in per capita stocks between regions are large. Trend scenarios suggest potential absolute or per capita stock saturations in some of the industrialized regions, while all other regions are expected to continue high stock growth. Accumulated stocks drive future end-of-life materials and substantial maintenance and replacement requirements. Growing material stocks hamper a potential stabilization or reduction of resource use. Low stock levels in most world regions suggest a crucial window of opportunity for avoiding resource-intensive stock development. In the industrialized regions and especially China, stabilising and reducing resource use requires halting net stock expansion and transforming existing stocks. More materials- and energy-efficient and long-lived stocks which deliver high quality services, and improved reuse, repair and recycling of increasing end-of-life materials to close loops and actually replace virgin resources, are crucial for a more sustainable social metabolism. © 2021 The Authors
英文关键词	Circular economy; Economy-wide material flow accounting (ew-MFA), Dynamic MFA; Socio-economic metabolism; Sustainable resource use
语种	英语
scopus关键词	industrialization; infrastructure; material flow analysis; recycling; resource use; stock market; China; USSR; Matthiola
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/256681
作者单位	Institute of Social Ecology, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna (BOKU), Austria; School of Sustainability, Interdisciplinary Center, Herzliya, Israel; School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wiedenhofer D.,Fishman T.,Plank B.,et al. Prospects for a saturation of humanity's resource use? An analysis of material stocks and flows in nine world regions from 1900 to 2035[J],2021,71.
APA	Wiedenhofer D..,Fishman T..,Plank B..,Miatto A..,Lauk C..,...&Krausmann F..(2021).Prospects for a saturation of humanity's resource use? An analysis of material stocks and flows in nine world regions from 1900 to 2035.Global Environmental Change,71.
MLA	Wiedenhofer D.,et al."Prospects for a saturation of humanity's resource use? An analysis of material stocks and flows in nine world regions from 1900 to 2035".Global Environmental Change 71(2021).