气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Trans-Arctic shipping routes expanding faster than the model projections

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102488
	Trans-Arctic shipping routes expanding faster than the model projections
	Cao Y.; Liang S.; Sun L.; Liu J.; Cheng X.; Wang D.; Chen Y.; Yu M.; Feng K.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	73
英文摘要	Rapid declines in Arctic sea ice coverage over the past four decades have increased the commercial feasibility of trans-Arctic routes. However, the historical changes in navigability of trans-Arctic routes remain unclear, and projections by global circulation models (GCMs) contain large uncertainties since they cannot simulate long-term Arctic sea ice changes. In this study, we determined the changes in trans-Arctic routes from 1979 to 2019 by combining two harmonized high-quality daily sea ice products. We found that the trans-Arctic routes are becoming navigable much faster than projected by the GCMs. The navigation season for open water (OW) vessels along the Northeast Passage (NEP) has lengthened from occasionally navigable in the 1980 s to 92 ± 15 days in the 2010 s. In contrast, previous GCM projections have suggested that navigability would not be achieved until the mid-21st century. The 90-day safety shipping area for OW vessels expanded by 35% during 1979–2018, reaching 8.28 million km2 in 2018, indicating an increasing rate of 0.08 ± 0.01 million km2 per year. The shortest trans-Arctic routes were also shifted further north than the model projections. Regular ships have been able to safely travel north along the islands in the NEP and transit through the M'Clure Strait in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago during the 2010 s, while previous studies have projected that this would not be feasible until the mid-21st century. We also found that the improved navigability of trans-Arctic routes enables commercial ships to transport approximately 33–66% (at the same load factor) more goods from East Asia to Europe during the Arctic shipping season than by the traditional Suez Canal route. These findings highlight the need for aggressive actions to develop mandatory rules that promote navigation safety and strengthen environmental protection in the Arctic. © 2022 Elsevier Ltd
英文关键词	Arctic environmental protection; Model projections; Navigability; Satellite observations; trans-Arctic routes; Transport efficiency
语种	英语
scopus关键词	environmental protection; general circulation model; ice cover; open water; sea ice; support vessel; vessel; Canadian Arctic; Egypt; Europe; Far East; Suez Canal
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/256656
作者单位	Precision Forestry Key Laboratory of Beijing, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, 100083, China; Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, 20742, United States; Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY 12222, United States; School of Geospatial Engineering and Science, Sun Yan-Sen University, Zhuhai, 519082, China; Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, 519082, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Cao Y.,Liang S.,Sun L.,et al. Trans-Arctic shipping routes expanding faster than the model projections[J],2022,73.
APA	Cao Y..,Liang S..,Sun L..,Liu J..,Cheng X..,...&Feng K..(2022).Trans-Arctic shipping routes expanding faster than the model projections.Global Environmental Change,73.
MLA	Cao Y.,et al."Trans-Arctic shipping routes expanding faster than the model projections".Global Environmental Change 73(2022).