气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Global socio-economic and climate change mitigation scenarios through the lens of structural change

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102510
	Global socio-economic and climate change mitigation scenarios through the lens of structural change
	Lefèvre J.; Le Gallic T.; Fragkos P.; Mercure J.-F.; Simsek Y.; Paroussos L.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	74
英文摘要	This paper analyses structural change in the economy as a key but largely unexplored aspect of global socio-economic and climate change mitigation scenarios. Structural change can actually drive energy and land use as much as economic growth and influence mitigation opportunities and barriers. Conversely, stringent climate policy is bound to induce specific structural and socio-economic transformations that are still insufficiently understood. We introduce Multi-Sectoral macroeconomic Integrated Assessment Models as tools to capture the key drivers of structural change and we conduct a multi-model study to assess main structural effects – changes of the sectoral composition and intensity of trade of global and regional economies – in a baseline and 2°C policy scenario by 2050. First, the range of baseline projections across models, for which we identify the main drivers, illustrates the uncertainty on future economic pathways – in emerging economies especially – and inform on plausible alternative futures with implications for energy use and emissions. Second, in all models, climate policy in the 2°C scenario imposes only a second-order impact on the economic structure at the macro-sectoral level – agriculture, manufacturing and services - compared to changes modelled in the baseline. However, this hides more radical changes for individual industries – within the energy sector especially. The study, which adopts a top-down framing of global structural change, represents a starting point to kick-start a conversation and propose a new research agenda seeking to improve understanding of the structural change effects in socio-economic and mitigation scenarios, and better inform policy assessments. © 2022 Elsevier Ltd
英文关键词	Climate policy; Energy sector; Multi-sectoral macroeconomic modelling; Socio-economic pathways; Structural change
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; economic growth; economic structure; energy use; environmental policy; land use; macroeconomics; socioeconomic conditions; structural change
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/256642
作者单位	CIRED, AgroParisTech, CIRAD, CNRS, EHESS, Ecole des Ponts ParisTech, Université Paris-Saclay, Campus du Jardin Tropical, 45 bis, avenue de la Belle Gabrielle, Nogent-sur-Marne, 94736, France; E3Modelling S.A., 70-72 Panormou Street, Athens, 1152, Greece; Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; Cambridge Centre for Energy, Environment and Natural Resource Governance (C-EENRG), Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom; Cambridge Econometrics Ltd, Cambridge, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lefèvre J.,Le Gallic T.,Fragkos P.,et al. Global socio-economic and climate change mitigation scenarios through the lens of structural change[J],2022,74.
APA	Lefèvre J.,Le Gallic T.,Fragkos P.,Mercure J.-F.,Simsek Y.,&Paroussos L..(2022).Global socio-economic and climate change mitigation scenarios through the lens of structural change.Global Environmental Change,74.
MLA	Lefèvre J.,et al."Global socio-economic and climate change mitigation scenarios through the lens of structural change".Global Environmental Change 74(2022).