气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Dynamic scenario simulations of carbon emission peak in China's city-scale urban residential building sector through 2050

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112612
	Dynamic scenario simulations of carbon emission peak in China's city-scale urban residential building sector through 2050
	Huo T.; Xu L.; Feng W.; Cai W.; Liu B.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0301-4215
卷号	159
英文摘要	Understanding future trajectory of urban residential building carbon emissions (URBCE) is essential to seeking effective carbon-abatement pathways to combat climate change. However, future evolutionary trajectory, possible emission peaks and peaking times in this sector are still unclear. This study innovatively develops an integrated dynamic simulation model by embedding a bottom-up building end-use energy model into the system dynamics model. Based on this, scenario analysis approach is combined with Monte Carlo simulation method to explore the possible emission peaks and peaking times considering the uncertainties of impact factors. We apply the integrated SD-LEAP model to Chongqing, a typical city in China's hot-summer and cold-winter zone. Results show that URBCE will probably peak at 22.8 (±8.0) Mt CO2 in 2042 (±3.4)—well beyond China's 2030 target. Different building end-uses present substantial disparities. The contribution of combined heating and cooling to URBCE mitigation will be over 60% between business-as-usual and low-carbon scenarios. Dynamic sensitivity analysis reveals that per capita gross domestic product, carbon emission factor, and residential floor space per capita can boost emission peaks and peaking time. This study can not only boost the theory and model development for carbon emission prediction, but also assist governments to set effective carbon-reduction targets and policies. © 2021 Elsevier Ltd
英文关键词	Carbon emission peak; China; Dynamic scenario simulation; Monte Carlo simulation; System dynamics model; Urban residential building sector
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Carbon; Climate change; Factor analysis; Housing; Intelligent systems; Sensitivity analysis; System theory; Uncertainty analysis; Buildings sector; Carbon emission peak; Carbon emissions; China; Dynamic scenario simulation; Dynamic scenarios; Emission peaks; Monte Carlo's simulation; Scenario simulations; System dynamics modelling; Urban residential building sector; Urban residential buildings; Monte Carlo methods; abatement cost; building; carbon emission; climate change; emission control; Monte Carlo analysis; scenario analysis; China; Chongqing
来源期刊	Energy Policy
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/256518
作者单位	School of Economics and Management, Hebei University of Technology, Tianjin, 300401, China; China Energy Group, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 1 Cyclotron RoadCA 94720, United States; School of Management Science and Real Estate, Chongqing University, Chongqing, 400044, China; School of Public Affairs, Chongqing University, Chongqing, 400044, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Huo T.,Xu L.,Feng W.,et al. Dynamic scenario simulations of carbon emission peak in China's city-scale urban residential building sector through 2050[J],2021,159.
APA	Huo T.,Xu L.,Feng W.,Cai W.,&Liu B..(2021).Dynamic scenario simulations of carbon emission peak in China's city-scale urban residential building sector through 2050.Energy Policy,159.
MLA	Huo T.,et al."Dynamic scenario simulations of carbon emission peak in China's city-scale urban residential building sector through 2050".Energy Policy 159(2021).