气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Modelling future trends of annual embodied energy of urban residential building stock in China

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.enpol.2022.112932
	Modelling future trends of annual embodied energy of urban residential building stock in China
	Zhou W.; Moncaster A.; O'Neill E.; Reiner D.M.; Wang X.; Guthrie P.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	0301-4215
卷号	165
英文摘要	China is the largest driver of growth in the global building sector. The longstanding construction boom across China has generated a massive flow of materials with significant associated embodied energy consumption and carbon emissions. Despite the serious implications for global emissions, there exist a very limited number of macro-level studies on embodied energy of Chinese buildings, with even fewer exploring future scenarios. There is therefore little in the way of an evidence base to offer policy makers. We develop a probabilistic model to forecast the possible trajectories of embodied energy of residential buildings over the medium to long term in the Chinese urban context. Our results provide clear evidence to substantiate the importance of embodied energy of new construction, which we find to be over 0.3 times the operational energy of existing stock between 2010 and 2018. If current trajectories are followed, embodied energy is likely to peak around 2027, with a 95% credible interval ranging from 87 to 283 Mtce (61 to 198 Mtoe) and a mean of 170 Mtce (119 Mtoe). We show that building lifetime has a substantial impact on future annual and cumulative embodied energy. Our findings reinforce the need to take a whole-life perspective to formulate policies addressing building energy as part of China's efforts to meet the announced overarching target of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. © 2022 Elsevier Ltd
英文关键词	Dynamic stock turnover; Embodied energy; Material intensity; Policy implications; Probabilistic model; Urban residential buildings
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Carbon; Housing; Public policy; Buildings sector; Dynamic stock turnover; Embodied energy; Future trends; Materials intensity; Policy implications; Probabilistic models; Residential building stocks; Stock turnover; Urban residential buildings; Energy utilization; electricity supply; energy policy; multistorey building; numerical model; policy implementation; probability; trend analysis; China
来源期刊	Energy Policy
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/256234
作者单位	Energy Policy Research Group, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom; Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom; School of Engineering and Innovation, Open University, United Kingdom; Econometric Institute, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Netherlands; Judge Business School, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom; Department of Civil Engineering, Xi'an Jiaotong University, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhou W.,Moncaster A.,O'Neill E.,et al. Modelling future trends of annual embodied energy of urban residential building stock in China[J],2022,165.
APA	Zhou W.,Moncaster A.,O'Neill E.,Reiner D.M.,Wang X.,&Guthrie P..(2022).Modelling future trends of annual embodied energy of urban residential building stock in China.Energy Policy,165.
MLA	Zhou W.,et al."Modelling future trends of annual embodied energy of urban residential building stock in China".Energy Policy 165(2022).