气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A framework for building climate storylines based on downward counterfactuals: The case of the European Union Solidarity fund

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.crm.2021.100349
	A framework for building climate storylines based on downward counterfactuals: The case of the European Union Solidarity fund
	Ciullo A.; Martius O.; Strobl E.; Bresch D.N.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2212-0963
卷号	33
英文摘要	Recent research introduced the concept of climate storylines as an alternative approach to estimate climate impact and better deal with uncertainties. A climate storyline is an event-based approach which aims at building “physically self-consistent unfolding of past events, or of plausible future events or pathways”. As such, climate storylines may profit from downward counterfactual thinking, which aims at analyzing how past events could have been worse. Notwithstanding the various applications of downward counterfactual thinking in the natural risk management literature, no study relates this with the climate storyline approach. The main goal of this paper is thus to introduce a framework that supports the development of climate storylines from downward counterfactuals. The framework is event-oriented, it focuses on impact, and it is designed to be applied in a participatory fashion. As a proof-of-concept application, we study the impact of tropical cyclone events on the European Union Solidarity Fund (EUSF) and do not conduct a participatory analysis. These events represent a serious threat to the European outermost regions, and their impact to the EUSF capital availability has never been studied. We find that payouts due to tropical cyclones can hamper a recovery of the fund if large payouts concurrently occur in mainland Europe. To avoid this also considering future changes, an increase in capitalization up to 90 % percent may be required. © 2021 The Author(s)
英文关键词	Climate storylines; Downward counterfactuals; European Union Solidarity Fund
语种	英语
来源期刊	Climate Risk Management
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/256137
作者单位	Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Institute of Geography and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Switzerland; Department of Economics and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Switzerland; Swiss Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Zurich, Switzerland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ciullo A.,Martius O.,Strobl E.,et al. A framework for building climate storylines based on downward counterfactuals: The case of the European Union Solidarity fund[J],2021,33.
APA	Ciullo A.,Martius O.,Strobl E.,&Bresch D.N..(2021).A framework for building climate storylines based on downward counterfactuals: The case of the European Union Solidarity fund.Climate Risk Management,33.
MLA	Ciullo A.,et al."A framework for building climate storylines based on downward counterfactuals: The case of the European Union Solidarity fund".Climate Risk Management 33(2021).