气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Predicting habitat suitability of Caiman yacare and assessing the role of protected areas under current and future climate and deforestation models

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DOI	10.1016/j.crm.2022.100407
	Predicting habitat suitability of Caiman yacare and assessing the role of protected areas under current and future climate and deforestation models
	Rodriguez-Cordero A.L.; Balaguera-Reina S.A.; Morales-Franco J.C.; Munn M.; Densmore III L.D.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	2212-0963
卷号	35
英文摘要	Climate change and habitat degradation are recognized as serious threats for wildlife and an important aspects to be considered in conservation biology. However, little is known about how such environmental changes might impact crocodylians inhabiting the Neotropics and the effectiveness of Protected Areas (PAs) for long-term species conservation. To fill this gap, we used the Yacare Caiman (Caiman yacare) as a model to explore how climate change and habitat degradation might affect its distribution by 2050 and the effectiveness of current PAs for species conservation in response to future environmental changes. To this end, we estimated C. yacare suitable habitat using an ensemble modeling and consensus approach and assessed the species distribution variation inside and outside PAs as a consequence of two greenhouse emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways [RCPs] 4.5 and 8.5), and three General Circulation Models (GCMs; ACCESS1-0, CANESM2, and MRI-CGCM3) for 2050. We estimated the current suitable habitat for C. yacare to be 854,494 km2 divided across five countries: Brazil (396,476 km2), Bolivia (377,853 km2), Paraguay (38,288 km2), Argentina (35,423 km2), and Peru (6,451 km2). Of these countries, Peru is the only one that can be considered “potential” because the species has not been registered there yet. We found that currently only 26.8% (228,835 km2) of C. yacare suitable habitat is under any type of protection of the IUCN Protected Area Categories System, which is currently well preserved from habitat degradation with only 1.9% reduced due to deforestation. We predicted that on average 56.2% of the current species range might be lost because of climate change and habitat degradation and only 14.7% of its suitable range could be preserved based on the current PAs system. Based on our assessment, we showed that future climate change scenarios and habitat degradation processes will require the establishment of additional PAs as well as the implementation of sustainable management strategies emphasizing corridors and suitable habitat linkages. These integrative approaches can be implemented in several ecoregions including the Pantanal flooded savannas, Cerrado woodlands and savannas, Beni savanna, Chiquitano dry forests, and Amazon moist forests, which we predict will be relatively well-preserved under most of the future climate change scenarios and constituting as priority regions for the long-term conservation of the species and tropical biodiversity. © 2022 The Author(s)
英文关键词	Climate change; Conservation; Crocodylian; Habitat degradation; IUCN protected areas categories; Species distribution modeling
语种	英语
来源期刊	Climate Risk Management
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/256083
作者单位	Department of Biological Sciences, Texas Tech University, 2500 Broadway, Lubbock, TX 79409, United States; Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, Fort Lauderdale Research and Education Center, University of Florida, Fort Lauderdale, FL, United States; Zoocriadero Crocoland, Calle Mataral No. 555, Santa Cruz, Bolivia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Rodriguez-Cordero A.L.,Balaguera-Reina S.A.,Morales-Franco J.C.,et al. Predicting habitat suitability of Caiman yacare and assessing the role of protected areas under current and future climate and deforestation models[J],2022,35.
APA	Rodriguez-Cordero A.L.,Balaguera-Reina S.A.,Morales-Franco J.C.,Munn M.,&Densmore III L.D..(2022).Predicting habitat suitability of Caiman yacare and assessing the role of protected areas under current and future climate and deforestation models.Climate Risk Management,35.
MLA	Rodriguez-Cordero A.L.,et al."Predicting habitat suitability of Caiman yacare and assessing the role of protected areas under current and future climate and deforestation models".Climate Risk Management 35(2022).