气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Evaluating the robustness of project performance under deep uncertainty of climate change: A case study of irrigation development in Kenya

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DOI	10.1016/j.crm.2022.100426
	Evaluating the robustness of project performance under deep uncertainty of climate change: A case study of irrigation development in Kenya
	Narita D.; Sato I.; Ogawada D.; Matsumura A.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	2212-0963
卷号	36
英文摘要	Infrastructure projects in developing countries can have conventional development objectives such as economic growth or those of climate change adaptation. While some projects can serve both types of purposes, the conventional benefits are often more clearly appreciated than the latter. But a clear identification of the climate change implications of a project is also important. Such distinction would help associate climate finance with climate benefits directly. However, at present, no established evaluation methods for adaptation benefits exist as it necessitates the representation of uncertainties of climate change effects in a specific project context, which is often difficult. Against this background, as a case study of the ex-ante evaluation of adaptation benefits under the uncertainty of climate change, we evaluate the robustness of the project performance of a Kenyan irrigation development project. Based on a simulation analysis carried out using the Robust Decision Making (RDM) approach, we assess the robustness of the positive expected outcomes of the project. We quantitatively identify that the development of irrigation facilities, especially when combined with the soft adaptation measures of farming practices, could bring about an increase of household income in the future under a large variety of conditions. These beneficial effects are partly a reflection of the reduced damage from climate change achieved by the project. We also discuss factors that could become relevant for the application of RDM-based project evaluation in the field of climate finance. © 2022 The Author(s)
英文关键词	Africa; Agriculture; Climate change adaptation; Climate finance; Economic assessment; Irrigation; Robust Decision Making (RDM); Uncertainty
语种	英语
来源期刊	Climate Risk Management
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/256062
作者单位	Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; JICA Ogata Research Institute, Tokyo, Japan; Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel, Germany; Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), Tokyo, Japan; Nippon Koei Co., Ltd, Tsukuba, Japan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Narita D.,Sato I.,Ogawada D.,et al. Evaluating the robustness of project performance under deep uncertainty of climate change: A case study of irrigation development in Kenya[J],2022,36.
APA	Narita D.,Sato I.,Ogawada D.,&Matsumura A..(2022).Evaluating the robustness of project performance under deep uncertainty of climate change: A case study of irrigation development in Kenya.Climate Risk Management,36.
MLA	Narita D.,et al."Evaluating the robustness of project performance under deep uncertainty of climate change: A case study of irrigation development in Kenya".Climate Risk Management 36(2022).