气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Simulation of the Potential Distribution of the Glacier Based on Maximum Entropy Model in the Tianshan Mountains, China

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DOI	10.3390/w13111541
	Simulation of the Potential Distribution of the Glacier Based on Maximum Entropy Model in the Tianshan Mountains, China
	Wang, Tongxia; Zhang, Zhengyong; Liu, Lin; Li, Zhongqin; Wang, Puyu; Xu, Liping; Zhao, Guining; Tian, Hao; Kang, Ziwei; Chen, Hongjin; Zhang, Xueying
通讯作者	Zhang, ZY ; Liu, L (通讯作者)，Shihezi Univ, Coll Sci, Shihezi 832000, Peoples R China. ; Zhang, ZY ; Liu, L (通讯作者)，Xinjiang Prod & Construct Corps, Key Lab Oasis Town & Mountain Basin Syst Ecol, Shihez 832000, Peoples R China.
发表日期	2021
EISSN	2073-4441
卷号	13 期号:11
英文摘要	Under the background of global climate change, the variation in the spatial distribution and ice volume of mountain glaciers have a profound influence on regional economic development and ecological security. The development of glaciers is like biological succession; when climate change approaches or exceeds the threshold of suitable conditions for glacier development, it will lead to changes in potential distribution pattern. Therefore, from the perspective of the biological characteristics of glaciers, it is a beneficial exploration and attempt in the field of glaciology to explore its potential distribution law with the help of the niche model. The maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) can explain the environmental conditions suitable for the survival of things by analyzing the mathematical characteristics and distribution laws of samples in space. According to glacier samples and the geographical environment data screened by correlation analysis and iterative calculation, the potential distribution pattern of Tianshan glaciers in China in reference years (1970-2000) was simulated by MaxEnt. This paper describes the contribution of geographical environmental factors to distribution of glaciers in Tianshan Mountains, quantifies the threshold range of factors affecting the suitable habitat of glaciers, and predicts the area variation and distribution pattern of glaciers under different climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5) in the future (2040-2060, 2080-2100). The results show that the MaxEnt model has good adaptability to simulate the distribution of glaciers. The spatial heterogeneity of potential distribution of glaciers is caused by the spatio-temporal differences of hydrothermal combination and topographic conditions. Among the environmental variables, precipitation during the wettest month, altitude, annual mean temperature, and temperature seasonality have more significant effects on the potential distribution of glaciers. There is significant spatial heterogeneity in the potential distribution of glaciers in different watersheds, altitudes, and aspects. From the forecast results of glacier in various climatic scenarios in the future, about 18.16-27.62% of the total reference year glacier area are in an alternating change of melting and accumulation, among which few glaciers are increasing, but this has not changed the overall retreat trend of glaciers in the study area. Under the low emission scenario, the glacier area of the Tianshan Mountains in China decreased by 18.18% and 23.73% respectively in the middle and end of the 21st century compared with the reference years and decreased by 20.04% and 27.63%, respectively, under the high emission scenario, which showed that the extent of glacier retreat is more intense under the high emission scenario. Our study offers momentous theoretical value and practical significance for enriching and expanding the theories and analytical methods of the glacier change.
关键词	PRECIPITATION DATA CLIMATE-CHANGE MASS-BALANCE TIEN-SHAN CATCHMENT SYSTEMS RUNOFF IMPACT SNOW
英文关键词	mountain glacier; the MaxEnt model; potential distribution; climate scenario; Tianshan Mountains of China
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Water Resources
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:000660836400001
来源期刊	WATER
来源机构	中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/254976
作者单位	[Wang, Tongxia; Zhang, Zhengyong; Liu, Lin; Li, Zhongqin; Xu, Liping; Zhao, Guining; Tian, Hao; Kang, Ziwei; Chen, Hongjin; Zhang, Xueying] Shihezi Univ, Coll Sci, Shihezi 832000, Peoples R China; [Wang, Tongxia; Zhang, Zhengyong; Liu, Lin; Xu, Liping] Xinjiang Prod & Construct Corps, Key Lab Oasis Town & Mountain Basin Syst Ecol, Shihez 832000, Peoples R China; [Li, Zhongqin; Wang, Puyu] Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Eco Environm & Resources, State Key Lab Cryospher Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang, Tongxia,Zhang, Zhengyong,Liu, Lin,et al. Simulation of the Potential Distribution of the Glacier Based on Maximum Entropy Model in the Tianshan Mountains, China[J]. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,2021,13(11).
APA	Wang, Tongxia.,Zhang, Zhengyong.,Liu, Lin.,Li, Zhongqin.,Wang, Puyu.,...&Zhang, Xueying.(2021).Simulation of the Potential Distribution of the Glacier Based on Maximum Entropy Model in the Tianshan Mountains, China.WATER,13(11).
MLA	Wang, Tongxia,et al."Simulation of the Potential Distribution of the Glacier Based on Maximum Entropy Model in the Tianshan Mountains, China".WATER 13.11(2021).