气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): An integrated assessment system for the carrying capacity of the water environment based on system dynamics

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113045
	An integrated assessment system for the carrying capacity of the water environment based on system dynamics
	Hu, Guanzheng; Zeng, Weihua; Yao, Ruihua; Xie, Yuxi; Liang, Sai
通讯作者	Zeng, WH ; Xie, YX (通讯作者)，Beijing Normal Univ, Sch Environm, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0301-4797
EISSN	1095-8630
卷号	295
英文摘要	Implementing an integrated assessment system for the carrying capacity of water environments should include recognizing and eliminating warning signs based on future predictions. However, existing methodologies tend to ignore the warning methods already in place, and current studies fail to quantify water ecology issues adequately. To help solve these problems, the ecological footprint that involves water uses a procedural indicator system, which adopts an early warning methodology system approach. This reconstruction has devised definitions, recognizes hazards, states forecasts status, analyses signs, judges situations, distinguishes levels, and eliminates risks. Based on these procedures, a dynamic system model has been developed, comprising five subsystems with an overarching parent system. These subsystems are population, ecology, water resources, water environment, and water ecology. The simulation involves carrying rates for the water environment, water resource, water ecology, and the level of harmony between society and the environment. All these serve to describe the water environment carrying capacity, i.e., the upper limit of the capacity to supply resources, remove pollutants, and offer sustainable ecological services. To properly quantify the carrying capacity, the water environment carrying rate was assessed by a comprehensive analysis of the water environment, water resources, and water ecological carrying rate. The carrying rates were calculated as the ratios of currently existing pressure to the maximum pressure that can be born. When values are greater than 1, they indicate overload because the actual pressure is greater than the pressure they can bear. The degree of coordination between economy and environment was standardized to range between 0 and 1. The larger the value, the more harmonious the relationship. For this research, the North Canal basin, a basin consisting of several rivers flowing through Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei in northern China and its surrounding areas, was chosen. The results showed that water environment and resource carrying rates would decline to 2.60 and 0.94, respectively, while the water ecology carrying rate would remain high at 10.98 by the year 2025. In addition, the degree of coordination would increase from 0.65 to 0.79. These statistics mean that the overload statuses will be high for a long time, although they are expected to ease gradually. Besides, the relationship between society and the environment would become more stable. Considering both the overload statuses and the relationship between society and the environment, the warning signs would not vanish. Based on predictions, the measures used were explained from three perspectives, i.e., alleviating pressures, enhancing carrying capacities, and finding a balance between society and the environment. Finally, the effects of the measures were estimated quantitatively.
英文关键词	Water environment carrying capacity; Integrated assessment; System dynamics; North Canal basin; Early warning
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000681302500006
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
来源机构	中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/254946
作者单位	[Hu, Guanzheng; Zeng, Weihua; Xie, Yuxi] Beijing Normal Univ, Sch Environm, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China; [Yao, Ruihua] Chinese Acad Environm Planning, Beijing 100012, Peoples R China; [Liang, Sai] Guangdong Univ Technol, Inst Environm & Ecol Engn, Minist Educ, Key Lab City Cluster Environm Safety & Green Dev, Guangzhou 510006, Guangdong, Peoples R China; [Zeng, Weihua] Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Plateau Biol, Xining 810001, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hu, Guanzheng,Zeng, Weihua,Yao, Ruihua,et al. An integrated assessment system for the carrying capacity of the water environment based on system dynamics[J]. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,2021,295.
APA	Hu, Guanzheng,Zeng, Weihua,Yao, Ruihua,Xie, Yuxi,&Liang, Sai.(2021).An integrated assessment system for the carrying capacity of the water environment based on system dynamics.JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT,295.
MLA	Hu, Guanzheng,et al."An integrated assessment system for the carrying capacity of the water environment based on system dynamics".JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 295(2021).