气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Transboundary water scarcity under climate change

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DOI	10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126453
	Transboundary water scarcity under climate change
	Gao, Tanguang; Wang, Xiaoming; Wei, Da; Wang, Tao; Liu, Shiwei; Zhang, Yulan
通讯作者	Gao, TG (通讯作者)，Lanzhou Univ, Coll Earth & Environm Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0022-1694
EISSN	1879-2707
卷号	598
英文摘要	Global transboundary river basins (TRBs) cover about 47% of land surface and 52% of population. Water scarcity is driving the potential risks as a result of competition for the limited water resources in TRBs, which turns to be both of an urgent environment issue and economic/political problems. In this study, we used a water supply-demand balance approach to estimate the impact of climate change on the water scarcity occurrence likelihood (WSOL) and water scarcity potential intensity (WSPI) in TRBs at a global scale. We projected the WSOL and WSPI by applying the global hydrological models (GHMs), which were driven by the bias-corrected data of four general circulation models (GCMs) considering different scenarios of the representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0), respectively. The results indicated that the WSOL in TRBs were expected to increase between 28% (at RCP2.6) and 42% (at RCP6.0) by 2080s in comparison with those during 1981-2010. The most significant increase of WSOL were found in the countries of West Asia as well as China and North Africa. We also found that the projection of WSPI showed less consistent trends across different basins in TRBs, with variations in a range from -10% to 5% by 2080s. In general, WSPI increased in West Asia but decreased in north Asia, Europe and North America. The results highlighted that the water scarcity in TRBs would be exacerbated by climate warming, likely overwhelming the efforts of nations to collaboratively use freshwater resources of TRBs in future, and potentially preceding more water conflicts.
关键词	RIVER-BASINS MULTIMODEL IMPACTS RUNOFF MODEL LAND
英文关键词	Water scarcity; Climate change; Transboundary river basins; RCPs
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
WOS类目	Engineering, Civil ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:000661813200021
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
来源机构	中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/254737
作者单位	[Gao, Tanguang] Lanzhou Univ, Coll Earth & Environm Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China; [Wang, Xiaoming; Liu, Shiwei; Zhang, Yulan] Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, State Key Lab Cryospher Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China; [Wei, Da] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mt Hazards & Environm, Key Lab Mt Surface Proc & Ecol Regulat, Chengdu 610041, Peoples R China; [Wang, Tao] East China Normal Univ, Sch Urban & Reg Sci, Shanghai 200241, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gao, Tanguang,Wang, Xiaoming,Wei, Da,et al. Transboundary water scarcity under climate change[J]. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,2021,598.
APA	Gao, Tanguang,Wang, Xiaoming,Wei, Da,Wang, Tao,Liu, Shiwei,&Zhang, Yulan.(2021).Transboundary water scarcity under climate change.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,598.
MLA	Gao, Tanguang,et al."Transboundary water scarcity under climate change".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 598(2021).