气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A method for estimating the probability of glacial lake outburst floods based on logistic regression and geodetector: a case study of the Himalayan region

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DOI	10.1007/s12145-021-00738-8
	A method for estimating the probability of glacial lake outburst floods based on logistic regression and geodetector: a case study of the Himalayan region
	He, Xiangqi; Wang, Zhoufeng; Wang, Chengwu; Wang, Shijin; Fan, Shangjie; Zeng, Yilong
通讯作者	Wang, ZF (通讯作者)，Southwest Petr Univ, Sch Geosci & Technol, Chengdu 610500, Peoples R China. ; Wang, ZF (通讯作者)，Southwest Petr Univ, State Key Lab Oil & Gas Reservoir Geol & Exploita, Chengdu 610500, Peoples R China. ; Wang, ZF (通讯作者)，Nat Gas Geol Key Lab Sichuan Prov, Chengdu 610500, Peoples R China.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	1865-0473
EISSN	1865-0481
起始页码	649
结束页码	658
卷号	15 期号:1
英文摘要	Glacial lake is an important water resource. But glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are destructive not only to property and infrastructure but also to people living in the regions. GLOFs prediction and risk evaluation are critical for preventing and mitigating the negative impacts. This paper proposes a prediction model for the possibility of GLOFs, which emphasizes the selection of easily available predictors. Taking 29 glacial lakes in the Himalayas as samples, the Geodetector is used to detect 4 selected predictors: the width of dam crest, the ratio of freeboard to dam height, the area of glacial lake and the area of mother glacier. The result shows the ratio of freeboard to dam height has the largest q-value of 0.3229. In the interaction detector, the width of dam crest and the ratio of freeboard to dam height had the highest explanatory power of 0.7667 after the interaction. The GLOFs probability prediction model correctly classifies 78% of drained lakes and 90% of undrained lakes, for an overall accuracy of 86%. Taking Amazhibu Tsho as an example, calculate variation in the probability of GLOF with different predictors. The results can provide practical and efficient references for local government and people.
关键词	MORAINE-DAMMED LAKES CATASTROPHIC DRAINAGE RIVER BASIN HAZARDS SUSCEPTIBILITY INVENTORY FAILURE
英文关键词	Himalayas; Glacial lake outburst floods; Geodetector; Logistic regression; Prediction model
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Computer Science ; Geology
WOS类目	Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS记录号	WOS:000741972300002
来源期刊	EARTH SCIENCE INFORMATICS
来源机构	中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/254678
作者单位	[He, Xiangqi; Wang, Zhoufeng; Wang, Chengwu; Fan, Shangjie; Zeng, Yilong] Southwest Petr Univ, Sch Geosci & Technol, Chengdu 610500, Peoples R China; [He, Xiangqi; Wang, Zhoufeng; Wang, Chengwu] Southwest Petr Univ, State Key Lab Oil & Gas Reservoir Geol & Exploita, Chengdu 610500, Peoples R China; [He, Xiangqi; Wang, Zhoufeng; Wang, Chengwu] Nat Gas Geol Key Lab Sichuan Prov, Chengdu 610500, Peoples R China; [Wang, Shijin] Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, State Key Lab Cryospher Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	He, Xiangqi,Wang, Zhoufeng,Wang, Chengwu,et al. A method for estimating the probability of glacial lake outburst floods based on logistic regression and geodetector: a case study of the Himalayan region[J]. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,2022,15(1).
APA	He, Xiangqi,Wang, Zhoufeng,Wang, Chengwu,Wang, Shijin,Fan, Shangjie,&Zeng, Yilong.(2022).A method for estimating the probability of glacial lake outburst floods based on logistic regression and geodetector: a case study of the Himalayan region.EARTH SCIENCE INFORMATICS,15(1).
MLA	He, Xiangqi,et al."A method for estimating the probability of glacial lake outburst floods based on logistic regression and geodetector: a case study of the Himalayan region".EARTH SCIENCE INFORMATICS 15.1(2022).