气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The Risk of the Population in a Changing Climate over the Tibetan Plateau, China: Integrating Hazard, Population Exposure and Vulnerability

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DOI	10.3390/su13073633
	The Risk of the Population in a Changing Climate over the Tibetan Plateau, China: Integrating Hazard, Population Exposure and Vulnerability
	Ji, Qin; Yang, Jianping; Wang, Can; Chen, Hongju; He, Qingshan; Sun, Zhenqi; Duan, Quntao; Li, Yao
通讯作者	Yang, JP (通讯作者)，Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, State Key Lab Cryospher Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China.
发表日期	2021
EISSN	2071-1050
卷号	13 期号:7
英文摘要	As the Third Pole of the Earth, the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has been warming significantly, and the instability of extreme events related to climate and weather has enhanced exceptionally in recent decades. These changes have posed increasingly severe impacts on the population over the TP. So far, however, the impacts on the population have not been assessed systematically and comprehensively from the perspective of risk. In this paper, the hazard of climate change was assessed from a fresh look, not only considering extreme changes of air temperature, precipitation, and wind speed, but also their changes in mean and fluctuation, using daily meteorological data from 1961-2015. The population exposure and vulnerability to climate change were then evaluated using demographic data and considering population scale and structure. Finally, the population risk over the TP to climate change was quantitatively assessed within the framework of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results showed that the climate change hazard was mainly at medium and heavy levels, in areas accounting for 64.60% of the total. The population exposure was relatively low; the land area at slight and light levels accounted for 83.94%, but high in the eastern edge area of the TP. The population vulnerability was mostly at medium and heavy levels, and the non-agricultural population rate was the key factor affecting the population vulnerability. Generally, the overall population risk over the TP was not very high: the number of counties with heavy and very heavy risk only accounted for 24.29%, and land area was less than 5%. However, more than 40% of the population was in high-risk areas, located in the eastern edge area of the TP. Population exposure was the decisive factor of the population risk to climate change, and high population exposure might lead to high risk. These findings were potentially valuable to improve cognition of risk, develop proactive risk mitigation strategies, and ensure sustainable development.
关键词	HEADWATERS REGION GLOBAL EXPOSURE SNOW DISASTERS TEMPERATURE QINGHAI ADAPTATION HEAT PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY SYSTEM
英文关键词	extreme change; trend change; fluctuating change; population risk; Tibetan Plateau
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS记录号	WOS:000638923600001
来源期刊	SUSTAINABILITY
来源机构	中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/254481
作者单位	[Ji, Qin; Yang, Jianping; Chen, Hongju; He, Qingshan; Sun, Zhenqi; Li, Yao] Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, State Key Lab Cryospher Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China; [Ji, Qin; Wang, Can] Tsinghua Univ, Sch Environm, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China; [Ji, Qin; Chen, Hongju; He, Qingshan; Sun, Zhenqi; Duan, Quntao; Li, Yao] Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China; [Chen, Hongju] Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Ecohydrol Inland River Basin, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ji, Qin,Yang, Jianping,Wang, Can,et al. The Risk of the Population in a Changing Climate over the Tibetan Plateau, China: Integrating Hazard, Population Exposure and Vulnerability[J]. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,2021,13(7).
APA	Ji, Qin.,Yang, Jianping.,Wang, Can.,Chen, Hongju.,He, Qingshan.,...&Li, Yao.(2021).The Risk of the Population in a Changing Climate over the Tibetan Plateau, China: Integrating Hazard, Population Exposure and Vulnerability.SUSTAINABILITY,13(7).
MLA	Ji, Qin,et al."The Risk of the Population in a Changing Climate over the Tibetan Plateau, China: Integrating Hazard, Population Exposure and Vulnerability".SUSTAINABILITY 13.7(2021).