气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Optimal parameterization of COVID-19 epidemic models

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DOI	10.1016/j.aosl.2020.100024
	Optimal parameterization of COVID-19 epidemic models
	Zhang, Li; Huang, Jianping; Yu, Haipeng; Liu, Xiaoyue; Wei, Yun; Lian, Xinbo; Liu, Chuwei; Jing, Zhikun
通讯作者	Huang, JP (通讯作者)，Lanzhou Univ, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Western Ecol Safety, Lanzhou, Peoples R China.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1674-2834
EISSN	2376-6123
卷号	14 期号:4
英文摘要	At the time of writing, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is seriously threatening human lives and health throughout the world. Many epidemic models have been developed to provide references for decision-making by governments and the World Health Organization. To capture and understand the characteristics of the epidemic trend, parameter optimization algorithms are needed to obtain model parameters. In this study, the authors propose using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm (LMA) to identify epidemic models. This algorithm combines the advantage of the Gauss-Newton method and gradient descent method and has improved the stability of parameters. The authors selected four countries with relatively high numbers of confirmed cases to verify the advantages of the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm over the traditional epidemiological model method. The results show that the Statistical-SIR (Statistical-Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model using LMA can fit the actual curve of the epidemic well, while the epidemic simulation of the traditional model evolves too fast and the peak value is too high to reflect the real situation.
英文关键词	COVID-19; Statistical method; Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm; SIR model
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000669470400010
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC SCIENCE LETTERS
来源机构	中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/254229
作者单位	[Zhang, Li; Huang, Jianping; Liu, Xiaoyue; Wei, Yun; Lian, Xinbo; Liu, Chuwei; Jing, Zhikun] Lanzhou Univ, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Western Ecol Safety, Lanzhou, Peoples R China; [Yu, Haipeng] Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, Lanzhou, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Li,Huang, Jianping,Yu, Haipeng,et al. Optimal parameterization of COVID-19 epidemic models[J]. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,2021,14(4).
APA	Zhang, Li.,Huang, Jianping.,Yu, Haipeng.,Liu, Xiaoyue.,Wei, Yun.,...&Jing, Zhikun.(2021).Optimal parameterization of COVID-19 epidemic models.ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC SCIENCE LETTERS,14(4).
MLA	Zhang, Li,et al."Optimal parameterization of COVID-19 epidemic models".ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC SCIENCE LETTERS 14.4(2021).