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DOI	10.1016/j.accre.2021.08.009
	Data-driven spatiotemporal projections of shallow permafrost based on CMIP6 across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau at 1 km(2) scale
	Yin Guo-An; Niu Fu-Jun; Lin Zhan-Ju; Luo Jing; Liu Ming-Hao
通讯作者	Niu, FJ (通讯作者)，Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, State Key Lab Frozen Soils Engn, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1674-9278
起始页码	814
结束页码	827
卷号	12 期号:6
英文摘要	The degradation of near-surface permafrost under ongoing climate change on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is of growing concern due to its impacts on geomorphological and ecological processes, as well as human activities. There is an increased need for an in-depth understanding of the evolution of permafrost temperature (Ttop) and active-layer thickness (ALT) at a fine scale on the QTP under climate change. This study evaluated the permafrost thermal development over the QTP for the period 1980-2100 at a 1 km(2) scale using a physically analytical model accounting for both climatic and local environmental factors based on multi-source data. The model results were validated against thermal borehole measurements and baseline maps. The modeled current (2001-2018) permafrost area (Ttop <= 0 degrees C) covers 1.42 x 106 km(2) (ca. 56.1% of the QTP land area), 10.1% of which thawed over the historical period 1981-2000. To assess how the ground thermal regime could develop in the future, we utilized the multi-model ensemble mean of downscaled outputs from eight climate models under three Shared Socio-economic Pathways (i.e., SSP126, 245, and 585) in CMIP6 to force the permafrost model. Model results suggest that the current (2001-2018) permafrost extent is likely to dramatically contract in the future period (2021-2100), as indicated by consistent Ttop warming and ALT increasing due to climate changing. About 26.9%, 59.9%, 80.1% of the current permafrost is likely to disappear by the end of the 21st century under SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. The simulation results may further provide new opportunities to assess the future impacts of climate warming on environments and engineering development over the QTP.
关键词	ACTIVE-LAYER THICKNESS SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT NORTHERN-HEMISPHERE THERMAL REGIME SPATIAL VARIABILITY CLIMATE MODEL DEGRADATION TEMPERATURE COVER
英文关键词	Climate change; Analytical model; Permafrost degradation; Active-layer; CMIP6; Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP)
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000731550400006
来源期刊	ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH
来源机构	中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/253618
作者单位	[Yin Guo-An; Niu Fu-Jun; Lin Zhan-Ju; Luo Jing; Liu Ming-Hao] Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, State Key Lab Frozen Soils Engn, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yin Guo-An,Niu Fu-Jun,Lin Zhan-Ju,et al. Data-driven spatiotemporal projections of shallow permafrost based on CMIP6 across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau at 1 km(2) scale[J]. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,2021,12(6).
APA	Yin Guo-An,Niu Fu-Jun,Lin Zhan-Ju,Luo Jing,&Liu Ming-Hao.(2021).Data-driven spatiotemporal projections of shallow permafrost based on CMIP6 across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau at 1 km(2) scale.ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH,12(6).
MLA	Yin Guo-An,et al."Data-driven spatiotemporal projections of shallow permafrost based on CMIP6 across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau at 1 km(2) scale".ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH 12.6(2021).