气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessing Soil Organic Carbon Stock Dynamics under Future Climate Change Scenarios in the Middle Qilian Mountains

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DOI	10.3390/f12121698
	Assessing Soil Organic Carbon Stock Dynamics under Future Climate Change Scenarios in the Middle Qilian Mountains
	Liu, Wei; Zhu, Meng; Li, Yongge; Zhang, Jutao; Yang, Linshan; Zhang, Chengqi
通讯作者	Zhu, M (通讯作者)，Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, Key Lab Ecohydrol Inland River Basin, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China.
发表日期	2021
EISSN	1999-4907
卷号	12 期号:12
英文摘要	Soil organic carbon (SOC) simply cannot be managed if its amounts, changes and locations are not well known. Thus, evaluations of the spatio-temporal dynamics of SOC stock under future climate change are crucial for the adaptive management of regional carbon sequestration. Here, we evaluated the dynamics of SOC stock to a 60 cm depth in the middle Qilian Mountains (1755-5051 m a.s.l.) by combining systematic measurements from 138 sampling sites with a machine learning model. Our results reveal that the combination of systematic measurements with the machine learning model allowed spatially explicit estimates of SOC change to be made. The average SOC stock in the middle Qilian Mountains was expected to decrease under future climate change, while the size and direction of SOC stock changes seemed to be elevation-dependent. Specifically, in comparison with the 2000s, the mean annual precipitation was projected to increase by 18.37, 19.80 and 30.80 mm, and the mean annual temperature was projected to increase by 1.9, 2.4 and 2.9 degrees C under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 (low-emissions pathway), RCP4.5 (low-to-moderate-emissions pathway), and RCP8.5 (high-emissions pathway) scenarios by the 2050s, respectively. Accordingly, the area-weighted SOC stock and total storage for the whole study area were estimated to decrease by 0.43, 0.63 and 1.01 kg m(-)(2) and 4.55, 6.66 and 10.62 Tg under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. In addition, the mid-elevation zones (3100-3900 m), especially the subalpine shrub-meadow Mollic Leptosols, were projected to experience the most intense carbon loss. However, the higher elevation zones (>3900 m), especially the alpine desert zone, were characterized by significant carbon accumulation. As for the low-elevation zones (<2900 m), SOC was projected to be less varied under future climate change scenarios. Thus, the mid-elevation zones, especially the subalpine shrub-meadows and Mollic Leptosols, should be given priority in terms of reducing CO2 emissions in the Qilian Mountains.
关键词	EARTH SYSTEM MODEL SPATIAL-DISTRIBUTION ENVIRONMENTAL CONTROLS CHANGE PROJECTIONS HEIHE RIVER REGION PATTERNS STORAGE LOSSES CHINA
英文关键词	soil organic carbon; climate change; subalpine shrub-meadow zone; machine learning; the Qilian Mountains
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Forestry
WOS类目	Forestry
WOS记录号	WOS:000737908500001
来源期刊	FORESTS
来源机构	中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/253616
作者单位	[Liu, Wei; Zhu, Meng; Li, Yongge; Zhang, Jutao; Yang, Linshan; Zhang, Chengqi] Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, Key Lab Ecohydrol Inland River Basin, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liu, Wei,Zhu, Meng,Li, Yongge,et al. Assessing Soil Organic Carbon Stock Dynamics under Future Climate Change Scenarios in the Middle Qilian Mountains[J]. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,2021,12(12).
APA	Liu, Wei,Zhu, Meng,Li, Yongge,Zhang, Jutao,Yang, Linshan,&Zhang, Chengqi.(2021).Assessing Soil Organic Carbon Stock Dynamics under Future Climate Change Scenarios in the Middle Qilian Mountains.FORESTS,12(12).
MLA	Liu, Wei,et al."Assessing Soil Organic Carbon Stock Dynamics under Future Climate Change Scenarios in the Middle Qilian Mountains".FORESTS 12.12(2021).