气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate predicts geographic and temporal variation in mosquito-borne disease dynamics on two continents

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DOI	10.1038/s41467-021-21496-7
	Climate predicts geographic and temporal variation in mosquito-borne disease dynamics on two continents
	Caldwell J.M.; LaBeaud A.D.; Lambin E.F.; Stewart-Ibarra A.M.; Ndenga B.A.; Mutuku F.M.; Krystosik A.R.; Ayala E.B.; Anyamba A.; Borbor-Cordova M.J.; Damoah R.; Grossi-Soyster E.N.; Heras F.H.; Ngugi H.N.; Ryan S.J.; Shah M.M.; Sippy R.; Mordecai E.A.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2041-1723
卷号	12 期号:1
英文摘要	Climate drives population dynamics through multiple mechanisms, which can lead to seemingly context-dependent effects of climate on natural populations. For climate-sensitive diseases, such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, climate appears to have opposing effects in different contexts. Here we show that a model, parameterized with laboratory measured climate-driven mosquito physiology, captures three key epidemic characteristics across ecologically and culturally distinct settings in Ecuador and Kenya: the number, timing, and duration of outbreaks. The model generates a range of disease dynamics consistent with observed Aedes aegypti abundances and laboratory-confirmed arboviral incidence with variable accuracy (28–85% for vectors, 44–88% for incidence). The model predicted vector dynamics better in sites with a smaller proportion of young children in the population, lower mean temperature, and homes with piped water and made of cement. Models with limited calibration that robustly capture climate-virus relationships can help guide intervention efforts and climate change disease projections. © 2021, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	accuracy assessment; calibration; disease vector; laboratory method; mosquito; parameterization; physiology; temporal variation; Aedes aegypti; Africa; Article; chikungunya; climate change; comparative study; conceptual model; controlled study; cultural factor; dengue; disease transmission; Ecuador; epidemic; geography; human; incidence; Kenya; land use; life cycle; low temperature; major clinical study; mosquito borne disease; nonhuman; observational study; parasite development; socioeconomics; South America; susceptible population; vapor pressure; Zika fever; animal; basic reproduction number; biological model; epidemiology; mosquito; nonlinear system; physiology; spatiotemporal analysis; time factor; Ecuador; Kenya; Aedes aegypti; Animals; Basic Reproduction Number; Climate Change; Culicidae; Disease Outbreaks; Ecuador; Geography; Humans; Kenya; Models, Biological; Nonlinear Dynamics; Socioeconomic Factors; Spatio-Temporal Analysis; Time Factors; Vector Borne Diseases
来源期刊	Nature Communications
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/251506
作者单位	Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States; Department of Pediatrics, Division of Infectious Diseases, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States; School of Earth, Energy & Environmental Sciences, and Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States; Georges Lemaître Earth and Climate Research Centre, Earth and Life Institute, Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium; Department of Medicine and Department of Public Health and Preventative Medicine, SUNY Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, NY, United States; InterAmerican Institute for Global Change Research (IAI), Montevideo, Uruguay; Centre for Global Health Research, Kenya Medical Research Institute, Kisumu, Kenya; Department of Environment and Health Sciences, Technical university of Mombasa, Mombasa, Kenya; Technical University of Machala, Machala, Ecuador; Universities Space Research Association and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United Stat...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Caldwell J.M.,LaBeaud A.D.,Lambin E.F.,et al. Climate predicts geographic and temporal variation in mosquito-borne disease dynamics on two continents[J],2021,12(1).
APA	Caldwell J.M..,LaBeaud A.D..,Lambin E.F..,Stewart-Ibarra A.M..,Ndenga B.A..,...&Mordecai E.A..(2021).Climate predicts geographic and temporal variation in mosquito-borne disease dynamics on two continents.Nature Communications,12(1).
MLA	Caldwell J.M.,et al."Climate predicts geographic and temporal variation in mosquito-borne disease dynamics on two continents".Nature Communications 12.1(2021).