气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Joint inference of CFC lifetimes and banks suggests previously unidentified emissions

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41467-021-23229-2
	Joint inference of CFC lifetimes and banks suggests previously unidentified emissions
	Lickley M.; Fletcher S.; Rigby M.; Solomon S.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2041-1723
卷号	12 期号:1
英文摘要	Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are harmful ozone depleting substances and greenhouse gases. CFC production was phased-out under the Montreal Protocol, however recent studies suggest new and unexpected emissions of CFC-11. Quantifying CFC emissions requires accurate estimates of both atmospheric lifetimes and ongoing emissions from old equipment (i.e. ‘banks’). In a Bayesian framework we simultaneously infer lifetimes, banks and emissions of CFC-11, 12 and 113 using available constraints. We find lifetimes of all three gases are likely shorter than currently recommended values, suggesting that best estimates of inferred emissions are larger than recent evaluations. Our analysis indicates that bank emissions are decreasing faster than total emissions, and we estimate new, unexpected emissions during 2014-2016 were 23.2, 18.3, and 7.8 Gg/yr for CFC-11, 12 and 113, respectively. While recent studies have focused on unexpected CFC-11 emissions, our results call for further investigation of potential sources of emissions of CFC-12 and CFC-113, along with CFC-11. © 2021, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	chlorofluorocarbon; ozone; CFC; emission; equipment; ozone depletion; pollutant source; Article; Bayesian learning; comparative study; evaluation study; greenhouse gas; parameters
来源期刊	Nature Communications
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/251445
作者单位	Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States; Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States; School of Chemistry, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lickley M.,Fletcher S.,Rigby M.,et al. Joint inference of CFC lifetimes and banks suggests previously unidentified emissions[J],2021,12(1).
APA	Lickley M.,Fletcher S.,Rigby M.,&Solomon S..(2021).Joint inference of CFC lifetimes and banks suggests previously unidentified emissions.Nature Communications,12(1).
MLA	Lickley M.,et al."Joint inference of CFC lifetimes and banks suggests previously unidentified emissions".Nature Communications 12.1(2021).