气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Seasonality of agricultural exposure as an important predictor of seasonal yellow fever spillover in Brazil

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DOI	10.1038/s41467-021-23926-y
	Seasonality of agricultural exposure as an important predictor of seasonal yellow fever spillover in Brazil
	Hamlet A.; Ramos D.G.; Gaythorpe K.A.M.; Romano A.P.M.; Garske T.; Ferguson N.M.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2041-1723
卷号	12 期号:1
英文摘要	Yellow fever virus (YFV) is a zoonotic arbovirus affecting both humans and non-human primates (NHP’s) in Africa and South America. Previous descriptions of YF’s seasonality have relied purely on climatic explanations, despite the high proportion of cases occurring in people involved in agriculture. We use a series of random forest classification models to predict the monthly occurrence of YF in humans and NHP’s across Brazil, by fitting four classes of covariates related to the seasonality of climate and agriculture (planting and harvesting), crop output and host demography. We find that models captured seasonal YF reporting in humans and NHPs when they considered seasonality of agriculture rather than climate, particularly for monthly aggregated reports. These findings illustrate the seasonality of exposure, through agriculture, as a component of zoonotic spillover. Additionally, by highlighting crop types and anthropogenic seasonality, these results could directly identify areas at highest risk of zoonotic spillover. © 2021, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; covariance analysis; numerical model; random walk method; risk assessment; seasonality; spillover effect; yellow fever; agriculture; animal reservoir; Article; Brazil; climate change; comparative study; computer language; controlled study; demography; disease surveillance; disease transmission; environmental exposure; geographic distribution; governmental organization; human; infection risk; nonhuman; random forest; seasonal variation; virus transmission; yellow fever; animal; climate; epidemic; forest; primate; season; yellow fever; Yellow fever virus; zoonosis; Africa; Brazil; Arbovirus; Yellow fever virus; Agriculture; Animals; Brazil; Climate; Disease Outbreaks; Forests; Humans; Primates; Seasons; Yellow Fever; Yellow fever virus; Zoonoses
来源期刊	Nature Communications
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/251414
作者单位	MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom; Secretariat for Health Surveillance, Brazilian Ministry of Health, Brasilia, Brazil
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hamlet A.,Ramos D.G.,Gaythorpe K.A.M.,et al. Seasonality of agricultural exposure as an important predictor of seasonal yellow fever spillover in Brazil[J],2021,12(1).
APA	Hamlet A.,Ramos D.G.,Gaythorpe K.A.M.,Romano A.P.M.,Garske T.,&Ferguson N.M..(2021).Seasonality of agricultural exposure as an important predictor of seasonal yellow fever spillover in Brazil.Nature Communications,12(1).
MLA	Hamlet A.,et al."Seasonality of agricultural exposure as an important predictor of seasonal yellow fever spillover in Brazil".Nature Communications 12.1(2021).