气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Approximate Bayesian Computation of radiocarbon and paleoenvironmental record shows population resilience on Rapa Nui (Easter Island)

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41467-021-24252-z
	Approximate Bayesian Computation of radiocarbon and paleoenvironmental record shows population resilience on Rapa Nui (Easter Island)
	DiNapoli R.J.; Crema E.R.; Lipo C.P.; Rieth T.M.; Hunt T.L.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2041-1723
卷号	12 期号:1
英文摘要	Examining how past human populations responded to environmental and climatic changes is a central focus of the historical sciences. The use of summed probability distributions (SPD) of radiocarbon dates as a proxy for estimating relative population sizes provides a widely applicable method in this research area. Paleodemographic reconstructions and modeling with SPDs, however, are stymied by a lack of accepted methods for model fitting, tools for assessing the demographic impact of environmental or climatic variables, and a means for formal multi-model comparison. These deficiencies severely limit our ability to reliably resolve crucial questions of past human-environment interactions. We propose a solution using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) to fit complex demographic models to observed SPDs. Using a case study from Rapa Nui (Easter Island), a location that has long been the focus of debate regarding the impact of environmental and climatic changes on its human population, we find that past populations were resilient to environmental and climatic challenges. Our findings support a growing body of evidence showing stable and sustainable communities on the island. The ABC framework offers a novel approach for exploring regions and time periods where questions of climate-induced demographic and cultural change remain unresolved. © 2021, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	carbon 14; Bayesian analysis; cultural change; historical record; nature-society relations; paleoclimate; paleoenvironment; probability; radiocarbon dating; reconstruction; Article; Bayes theorem; climate change; comparative study; demography; environmental change; forest; human; population; Easter Island
来源期刊	Nature Communications
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/251408
作者单位	Environmental Studies Program, Department of Anthropology, Harpur College of Arts and Sciences, Binghamton University, State University of New York, Binghamton, NY, United States; Department of Archaeology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom; International Archaeological Research Institute Inc., Honolulu, HI, United States; The Honors College and School of Anthropology, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	DiNapoli R.J.,Crema E.R.,Lipo C.P.,et al. Approximate Bayesian Computation of radiocarbon and paleoenvironmental record shows population resilience on Rapa Nui (Easter Island)[J],2021,12(1).
APA	DiNapoli R.J.,Crema E.R.,Lipo C.P.,Rieth T.M.,&Hunt T.L..(2021).Approximate Bayesian Computation of radiocarbon and paleoenvironmental record shows population resilience on Rapa Nui (Easter Island).Nature Communications,12(1).
MLA	DiNapoli R.J.,et al."Approximate Bayesian Computation of radiocarbon and paleoenvironmental record shows population resilience on Rapa Nui (Easter Island)".Nature Communications 12.1(2021).