气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Possible future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection generated by variants of concern with a range of characteristics

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41467-021-25915-7
	Possible future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection generated by variants of concern with a range of characteristics
	Dyson L.; Hill E.M.; Moore S.; Curran-Sebastian J.; Tildesley M.J.; Lythgoe K.A.; House T.; Pellis L.; Keeling M.J.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2041-1723
卷号	12 期号:1
英文摘要	Viral reproduction of SARS-CoV-2 provides opportunities for the acquisition of advantageous mutations, altering viral transmissibility, disease severity, and/or allowing escape from natural or vaccine-derived immunity. We use three mathematical models: a parsimonious deterministic model with homogeneous mixing; an age-structured model; and a stochastic importation model to investigate the effect of potential variants of concern (VOCs). Calibrating to the situation in England in May 2021, we find epidemiological trajectories for putative VOCs are wide-ranging and dependent on their transmissibility, immune escape capability, and the introduction timing of a postulated VOC-targeted vaccine. We demonstrate that a VOC with a substantial transmission advantage over resident variants, or with immune escape properties, can generate a wave of infections and hospitalisations comparable to the winter 2020-2021 wave. Moreover, a variant that is less transmissible, but shows partial immune-escape could provoke a wave of infection that would not be revealed until control measures are further relaxed. © 2021, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	SARS-CoV-2 vaccine; disease severity; mutation; severe acute respiratory syndrome; Article; community transmission; coronavirus disease 2019; disease burden; disease severity; England; human; mathematical model; nonhuman; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; vaccination; variant of concern; virus transmission; administration and dosage; adolescent; adult; biological model; computer simulation; epidemiology; forecasting; genetics; immune evasion; immunology; Markov chain; middle aged; mutation; pandemic; pathogenicity; prevention and control; procedures; United Kingdom; young adult; England; United Kingdom; SARS coronavirus; Adolescent; Adult; Computer Simulation; COVID-19; COVID-19 Vaccines; Forecasting; Humans; Immune Evasion; Middle Aged; Models, Biological; Mutation; Pandemics; SARS-CoV-2; Stochastic Processes; United Kingdom; Vaccination; Young Adult
来源期刊	Nature Communications
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/251342
作者单位	The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom; Joint Universities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research, United Kingdom; Department of Mathematics, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom; Big Data Institute, Old Road Campus, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; IBM Research, Hartree Centre, Daresbury, United Kingdom; The Alan Turing Institute for Data Science and Artificial Intelligence, London, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Dyson L.,Hill E.M.,Moore S.,et al. Possible future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection generated by variants of concern with a range of characteristics[J],2021,12(1).
APA	Dyson L..,Hill E.M..,Moore S..,Curran-Sebastian J..,Tildesley M.J..,...&Keeling M.J..(2021).Possible future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection generated by variants of concern with a range of characteristics.Nature Communications,12(1).
MLA	Dyson L.,et al."Possible future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection generated by variants of concern with a range of characteristics".Nature Communications 12.1(2021).