气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Extreme fire weather is the major driver of severe bushfires in southeast Australia

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DOI	10.1016/j.scib.2021.10.001
	Extreme fire weather is the major driver of severe bushfires in southeast Australia
	Wang B.; Spessa A.C.; Feng P.; Hou X.; Yue C.; Luo J.-J.; Ciais P.; Waters C.; Cowie A.; Nolan R.H.; Nikonovas T.; Jin H.; Walshaw H.; Wei J.; Guo X.; Liu D.L.; Yu Q.
发表日期	2021
英文摘要	In Australia, the proportion of forest area that burns in a typical fire season is less than for other vegetation types. However, the 2019–2020 austral spring-summer was an exception, with over four times the previous maximum area burnt in southeast Australian temperate forests. Temperate forest fires have extensive socio-economic, human health, greenhouse gas emissions, and biodiversity impacts due to high fire intensities. A robust model that identifies driving factors of forest fires and relates impact thresholds to fire activity at regional scales would help land managers and fire-fighting agencies prepare for potentially hazardous fire in Australia. Here, we developed a machine-learning diagnostic model to quantify nonlinear relationships between monthly burnt area and biophysical factors in southeast Australian forests for 2001–2020 on a 0.25° grid based on several biophysical parameters, notably fire weather and vegetation productivity. Our model explained over 80% of the variation in the burnt area. We identified that burnt area dynamics in southeast Australian forest were primarily controlled by extreme fire weather, which mainly linked to fluctuations in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), with a relatively smaller contribution from the central Pacific El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our fire diagnostic model and the non-linear relationships between burnt area and environmental covariates can provide useful guidance to decision-makers who manage preparations for an upcoming fire season, and model developers working on improved early warning systems for forest fires. © 2021 Science China Press
英文关键词	Burnt area modelling; Climate drivers; Forest fires; Machine learning; Remote sensing; Southeast Australia
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Atmospheric pressure; Biodiversity; Climate change; Decision making; Fire hazards; Fires; Gas emissions; Greenhouse gases; Machine learning; Remote sensing; Vegetation; Australia; Burn area modeling; Burn-in; Burnt areas; Climate driver; Fire weather; Forest fires; Remote-sensing; Southeast australia; Temperate forests; Deforestation
来源期刊	Science Bulletin
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/251219
作者单位	State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, 712100, China; New South Wales Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, Wagga Wagga, 2650, Australia; Department of Geography, College of Science, Swansea University, Singleton Park, Swansea, SA2 8PP, United Kingdom; College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing, 100193, China; College of Natural Resources and Environment, Northwest A & F University, Yangling, 712100, China; Institute for Climate and Application Research (ICAR)/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education (KLME), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif sur Yvette F-91191, France; New South Wales Department of Primary Industries, Dubbo, 2830, Australia; New South Wales Department of Primary Industries, Armidale, 2351, Australia...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang B.,Spessa A.C.,Feng P.,et al. Extreme fire weather is the major driver of severe bushfires in southeast Australia[J],2021.
APA	Wang B..,Spessa A.C..,Feng P..,Hou X..,Yue C..,...&Yu Q..(2021).Extreme fire weather is the major driver of severe bushfires in southeast Australia.Science Bulletin.
MLA	Wang B.,et al."Extreme fire weather is the major driver of severe bushfires in southeast Australia".Science Bulletin (2021).