气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Reconciling global mean and regional sea level change in projections and observations

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DOI	10.1038/s41467-021-21265-6
	Reconciling global mean and regional sea level change in projections and observations
	Wang J.; Church J.A.; Zhang X.; Chen X.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2041-1723
卷号	12 期号:1
英文摘要	The ability of climate models to simulate 20th century global mean sea level (GMSL) and regional sea-level change has been demonstrated. However, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) sea-level projections have not been rigorously evaluated with observed GMSL and coastal sea level from a global network of tide gauges as the short overlapping period (2007–2018) and natural variability make the detection of trends and accelerations challenging. Here, we critically evaluate these projections with satellite and tide-gauge observations. The observed trends from GMSL and the regional weighted mean at tide-gauge stations confirm the projections under three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios within 90% confidence level during 2007–2018. The central values of the observed GMSL (1993–2018) and regional weighted mean (1970–2018) accelerations are larger than projections for RCP2.6 and lie between (or even above) those for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 over 2007–2032, but are not yet statistically different from any scenario. While the confirmation of the projection trends gives us confidence in current understanding of near future sea-level change, it leaves open questions concerning late 21st century non-linear accelerations from ice-sheet contributions. © 2021, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate modeling; coastal zone; cryosphere; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; observational method; sea level change; spatiotemporal analysis; tide gauge; acceleration; Article; climate change; global mean sea level; ice sheet; latitude; multiple linear regression analysis; regional sea level; sea level; sea level rise; tide; time series analysis
来源期刊	Nature Communications
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/250769
作者单位	Department of Oceanography, College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China; Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS, Australia; Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System, Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang J.,Church J.A.,Zhang X.,et al. Reconciling global mean and regional sea level change in projections and observations[J],2021,12(1).
APA	Wang J.,Church J.A.,Zhang X.,&Chen X..(2021).Reconciling global mean and regional sea level change in projections and observations.Nature Communications,12(1).
MLA	Wang J.,et al."Reconciling global mean and regional sea level change in projections and observations".Nature Communications 12.1(2021).