气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Contrasting long-term temperature trends reveal minor changes in projected potential evapotranspiration in the US Midwest

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DOI	10.1038/s41467-021-21763-7
	Contrasting long-term temperature trends reveal minor changes in projected potential evapotranspiration in the US Midwest
	Basso B.; Martinez-Feria R.A.; Rill L.; Ritchie J.T.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2041-1723
卷号	12 期号:1
英文摘要	Warming generally leads to increased evaporative demand, altering the amount of water needed for growing crops. For the Midwest, some studies have suggested that reaching yield targets by 2050 will not be possible without additional precipitation or large expansion of irrigation. Here, we show that this claim is not supported by the historical summer climate trends, which indicate that the warming of daily average temperatures is largely driven by increases in minimum temperatures, while maximum temperatures have decreased. This has translated into a net decrease in vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and potential evapotranspiration (PET). With the increasing rainfall, this suggests that crop water deficits have likely become less frequent in the region despite the warming climate. By projecting these trends into 2050 and ancillary use of a crop model, we estimate minor changes in PET that would have minimal effects on corn yields (<6%) under persistence of these trends. © 2021, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	rain; agricultural modeling; crop yield; high temperature; low temperature; maize; potential evapotranspiration; rainfall; temperature effect; trend analysis; vapor pressure; water stress; Article; climate change; environmental temperature; evapotranspiration; harvest; maize; plant growth; plant water use; summer; time series analysis; United States; vapor pressure; warming; water stress; Midwest; United States
来源期刊	Nature Communications
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/250751
作者单位	Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, United States; W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University, Hickory Corners, MI, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Basso B.,Martinez-Feria R.A.,Rill L.,et al. Contrasting long-term temperature trends reveal minor changes in projected potential evapotranspiration in the US Midwest[J],2021,12(1).
APA	Basso B.,Martinez-Feria R.A.,Rill L.,&Ritchie J.T..(2021).Contrasting long-term temperature trends reveal minor changes in projected potential evapotranspiration in the US Midwest.Nature Communications,12(1).
MLA	Basso B.,et al."Contrasting long-term temperature trends reveal minor changes in projected potential evapotranspiration in the US Midwest".Nature Communications 12.1(2021).