气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Malaria trends in Ethiopian highlands track the 2000 ‘slowdown’ in global warming

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DOI	10.1038/s41467-021-21815-y
	Malaria trends in Ethiopian highlands track the 2000 ‘slowdown’ in global warming
	Rodó X.; Martinez P.P.; Siraj A.; Pascual M.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2041-1723
卷号	12 期号:1
英文摘要	A counterargument to the importance of climate change for malaria transmission has been that regions where an effect of warmer temperatures is expected, have experienced a marked decrease in seasonal epidemic size since the turn of the new century. This decline has been observed in the densely populated highlands of East Africa at the center of the earlier debate on causes of the pronounced increase in epidemic size from the 1970s to the 1990s. The turnaround of the incidence trend around 2000 is documented here with an extensive temporal record for malaria cases for both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax in an Ethiopian highland. With statistical analyses and a process-based transmission model, we show that this decline was driven by the transient slowdown in global warming and associated changes in climate variability, especially ENSO. Decadal changes in temperature and concurrent climate variability facilitated rather than opposed the effect of interventions. © 2021, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	new drug; climate change; climate variation; disease transmission; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; epidemic; global warming; malaria; mosquito; temporal record; trend analysis; Article; climate change; Ethiopian; greenhouse effect; human; malaria; malaria falciparum; parasite transmission; Plasmodium vivax malaria; trend study; Africa; greenhouse effect; incidence; malaria; malaria falciparum; pathogenicity; Plasmodium falciparum; Plasmodium vivax; temperature; Ethiopian Highlands; Plasmodium falciparum; Plasmodium vivax; Africa, Eastern; Global Warming; Humans; Incidence; Malaria; Malaria, Falciparum; Plasmodium falciparum; Plasmodium vivax; Temperature
来源期刊	Nature Communications
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/250748
作者单位	ICREA and CLIMA (Climate and Health) Program, ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain; Department of Epidemiology, Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, United States; Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, United States; Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, United States; Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM, United States; Department of Microbiology and Department of Statistics, University of Illinois at Urbana, Champaign, Champaign, IL, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Rodó X.,Martinez P.P.,Siraj A.,等. Malaria trends in Ethiopian highlands track the 2000 ‘slowdown’ in global warming[J],2021,12(1).
APA	Rodó X.,Martinez P.P.,Siraj A.,&Pascual M..(2021).Malaria trends in Ethiopian highlands track the 2000 ‘slowdown’ in global warming.Nature Communications,12(1).
MLA	Rodó X.,et al."Malaria trends in Ethiopian highlands track the 2000 ‘slowdown’ in global warming".Nature Communications 12.1(2021).