气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Impacts of long-term temperature change and variability on electricity investments

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41467-021-21785-1
	Impacts of long-term temperature change and variability on electricity investments
	Khan Z.; Iyer G.; Patel P.; Kim S.; Hejazi M.; Burleyson C.; Wise M.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2041-1723
卷号	12 期号:1
英文摘要	Long-term temperature change and variability are expected to have significant impacts on future electric capacity and investments. This study improves upon past studies by accounting for hourly and monthly dynamics of electricity use, long-term socioeconomic drivers, and interactions of the electric sector with rest of the economy for a comprehensive analysis of temperature change impacts on cooling and heating services and their corresponding impact on electric capacity and investments. Using the United States as an example, here we show that under a scenario consistent with a socioeconomic pathway 2 (SSP2) and representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5), mean temperature changes drive increases in annual electricity demands by 0.5-8% across states in 2100. But more importantly, peak temperature changes drive increases in capital investments by 3-22%. Moreover, temperature-induced capital investments are highly sensitive to both long-term socioeconomic assumptions and spatial heterogeneity of fuel prices and capital stock characteristics, which underscores the importance of a comprehensive approach to inform long-term electric sector planning. © 2021, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	atmospheric electricity; concentration (composition); electricity; electricity generation; electricity industry; energy planning; heating; socioeconomic conditions; temperature effect; article; cooling; electricity; heating; human; investment; price; United States; United States
来源期刊	Nature Communications
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/250744
作者单位	Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), College Park, MD, United States; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Khan Z.,Iyer G.,Patel P.,et al. Impacts of long-term temperature change and variability on electricity investments[J],2021,12(1).
APA	Khan Z..,Iyer G..,Patel P..,Kim S..,Hejazi M..,...&Wise M..(2021).Impacts of long-term temperature change and variability on electricity investments.Nature Communications,12(1).
MLA	Khan Z.,et al."Impacts of long-term temperature change and variability on electricity investments".Nature Communications 12.1(2021).