气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Skilful predictions of the Asian summer monsoon one year ahead

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DOI	10.1038/s41467-021-22299-6
	Skilful predictions of the Asian summer monsoon one year ahead
	Takaya Y.; Kosaka Y.; Watanabe M.; Maeda S.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2041-1723
卷号	12 期号:1
英文摘要	The interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon has significant impacts on Asian society. Advances in climate modelling have enabled us to make useful predictions of the seasonal Asian summer monsoon up to approximately half a year ahead, but long-range predictions remain challenging. Here, using a 52-member large ensemble hindcast experiment spanning 1980–2016, we show that a state-of-the-art climate model can predict the Asian summer monsoon and associated summer tropical cyclone activity more than one year ahead. The key to this long-range prediction is successfully simulating El Niño-Southern Oscillation evolution and realistically representing the subsequent atmosphere–ocean response in the Indian Ocean–western North Pacific in the second boreal summer of the prediction. A large ensemble size is also important for achieving a useful prediction skill, with a margin for further improvement by an even larger ensemble. © 2021, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	annual variation; centroid moment tensor; climate modeling; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; monsoon; seasonal variation; spatiotemporal analysis; summer; tropical cyclone; article; atmosphere; El Nino; human; Indian Ocean; prediction; skill; summer; Armenia [West Asia]; Asia; Indian Ocean; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (North)
来源期刊	Nature Communications
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/250724
作者单位	Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Ibaraki, Japan; Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Chiba, Japan; Aerological Observatory, Japan Meteorological Agency, Ibaraki, Japan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Takaya Y.,Kosaka Y.,Watanabe M.,et al. Skilful predictions of the Asian summer monsoon one year ahead[J],2021,12(1).
APA	Takaya Y.,Kosaka Y.,Watanabe M.,&Maeda S..(2021).Skilful predictions of the Asian summer monsoon one year ahead.Nature Communications,12(1).
MLA	Takaya Y.,et al."Skilful predictions of the Asian summer monsoon one year ahead".Nature Communications 12.1(2021).