气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate signals in river flood damages emerge under sound regional disaggregation

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DOI	10.1038/s41467-021-22153-9
	Climate signals in river flood damages emerge under sound regional disaggregation
	Sauer I.J.; Reese R.; Otto C.; Geiger T.; Willner S.N.; Guillod B.P.; Bresch D.N.; Frieler K.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2041-1723
卷号	12 期号:1
英文摘要	Climate change affects precipitation patterns. Here, we investigate whether its signals are already detectable in reported river flood damages. We develop an empirical model to reconstruct observed damages and quantify the contributions of climate and socio-economic drivers to observed trends. We show that, on the level of nine world regions, trends in damages are dominated by increasing exposure and modulated by changes in vulnerability, while climate-induced trends are comparably small and mostly statistically insignificant, with the exception of South & Sub-Saharan Africa and Eastern Asia. However, when disaggregating the world regions into subregions based on river-basins with homogenous historical discharge trends, climate contributions to damages become statistically significant globally, in Asia and Latin America. In most regions, we find monotonous climate-induced damage trends but more years of observations would be needed to distinguish between the impacts of anthropogenic climate forcing and multidecadal oscillations. © 2021, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; climate forcing; climate signal; flood damage; socioeconomic status; Africa south of the Sahara; article; Asia; climate; human; oscillation; river basin; sound; South and Central America; Far East; Latin America; Sub-Saharan Africa
来源期刊	Nature Communications
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/250720
作者单位	Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), Climate and Environment Consultancy, Stahnsdorf, Germany; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Zurich-Airport, Switzerland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sauer I.J.,Reese R.,Otto C.,et al. Climate signals in river flood damages emerge under sound regional disaggregation[J],2021,12(1).
APA	Sauer I.J..,Reese R..,Otto C..,Geiger T..,Willner S.N..,...&Frieler K..(2021).Climate signals in river flood damages emerge under sound regional disaggregation.Nature Communications,12(1).
MLA	Sauer I.J.,et al."Climate signals in river flood damages emerge under sound regional disaggregation".Nature Communications 12.1(2021).