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DOI | 10.1038/s41467-021-22153-9 |
Climate signals in river flood damages emerge under sound regional disaggregation | |
Sauer I.J.; Reese R.; Otto C.; Geiger T.; Willner S.N.; Guillod B.P.; Bresch D.N.; Frieler K. | |
发表日期 | 2021 |
ISSN | 2041-1723 |
卷号 | 12期号:1 |
英文摘要 | Climate change affects precipitation patterns. Here, we investigate whether its signals are already detectable in reported river flood damages. We develop an empirical model to reconstruct observed damages and quantify the contributions of climate and socio-economic drivers to observed trends. We show that, on the level of nine world regions, trends in damages are dominated by increasing exposure and modulated by changes in vulnerability, while climate-induced trends are comparably small and mostly statistically insignificant, with the exception of South & Sub-Saharan Africa and Eastern Asia. However, when disaggregating the world regions into subregions based on river-basins with homogenous historical discharge trends, climate contributions to damages become statistically significant globally, in Asia and Latin America. In most regions, we find monotonous climate-induced damage trends but more years of observations would be needed to distinguish between the impacts of anthropogenic climate forcing and multidecadal oscillations. © 2021, The Author(s). |
语种 | 英语 |
scopus关键词 | climate change; climate forcing; climate signal; flood damage; socioeconomic status; Africa south of the Sahara; article; Asia; climate; human; oscillation; river basin; sound; South and Central America; Far East; Latin America; Sub-Saharan Africa |
来源期刊 | Nature Communications |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/250720 |
作者单位 | Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), Climate and Environment Consultancy, Stahnsdorf, Germany; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Zurich-Airport, Switzerland |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sauer I.J.,Reese R.,Otto C.,et al. Climate signals in river flood damages emerge under sound regional disaggregation[J],2021,12(1). |
APA | Sauer I.J..,Reese R..,Otto C..,Geiger T..,Willner S.N..,...&Frieler K..(2021).Climate signals in river flood damages emerge under sound regional disaggregation.Nature Communications,12(1). |
MLA | Sauer I.J.,et al."Climate signals in river flood damages emerge under sound regional disaggregation".Nature Communications 12.1(2021). |
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