气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): On the optimality of 2°C targets and a decomposition of uncertainty

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DOI	10.1038/s41467-021-22826-5
	On the optimality of 2°C targets and a decomposition of uncertainty
	van der Wijst K.-I.; Hof A.F.; van Vuuren D.P.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2041-1723
卷号	12 期号:1
英文摘要	Determining international climate mitigation response strategies is a complex task. Integrated Assessment Models support this process by analysing the interplay of the most relevant factors, including socio-economic developments, climate system uncertainty, damage estimates, mitigation costs and discount rates. Here, we develop a meta-model that disentangles the uncertainties of these factors using full literature ranges. This model allows comparing insights of the cost-minimising and cost-benefit modelling communities. Typically, mitigation scenarios focus on minimum-cost pathways achieving the Paris Agreement without accounting for damages; our analysis shows doing so could double the initial carbon price. In a full cost-benefit setting, we show that the optimal temperature target does not exceed 2.5 °C when considering medium damages and low discount rates, even with high mitigation costs. With low mitigation costs, optimal temperature change drops to 1.5 °C or less. The most important factor determining the optimal temperature is the damage function, accounting for 50% of the uncertainty. © 2021, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	carbon; cost-benefit analysis; decomposition analysis; discount rate; integrated approach; international agreement; mitigation; pollution tax; socioeconomic impact; uncertainty analysis; Article; budget; controlled study; cost benefit analysis; decomposition; economic development; global climate; investment; sensitivity analysis; temperature; uncertainty
来源期刊	Nature Communications
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/250702
作者单位	PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, Netherlands; Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	van der Wijst K.-I.,Hof A.F.,van Vuuren D.P.. On the optimality of 2°C targets and a decomposition of uncertainty[J],2021,12(1).
APA	van der Wijst K.-I.,Hof A.F.,&van Vuuren D.P..(2021).On the optimality of 2°C targets and a decomposition of uncertainty.Nature Communications,12(1).
MLA	van der Wijst K.-I.,et al."On the optimality of 2°C targets and a decomposition of uncertainty".Nature Communications 12.1(2021).