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DOI	10.1038/s41467-021-24113-9
	Large model structural uncertainty in global projections of urban heat waves
	Zheng Z.; Zhao L.; Oleson K.W.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2041-1723
卷号	12 期号:1
英文摘要	Urban heat waves (UHWs) are strongly associated with socioeconomic impacts. Here, we use an urban climate emulator combined with large ensemble global climate simulations to show that, at the urban scale a large proportion of the variability results from the model structural uncertainty in projecting UHWs in the coming decades under climate change. Omission of this uncertainty would considerably underestimate the risk of UHW. Results show that, for cities in four high-stake regions – the Great Lakes of North America, Southern Europe, Central India, and North China – a virtually unlikely (0.01% probability) UHW projected by single-model ensembles is estimated by our model with probabilities of 23.73%, 4.24%, 1.56%, and 14.76% respectively in 2061–2070 under a high-emission scenario. Our findings suggest that for urban-scale extremes, policymakers and stakeholders will have to plan for larger uncertainties than what a single model predicts if decisions are informed based on urban climate simulations. © 2021, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	boundary layer; climate change; global climate; global perspective; heat wave; policy making; socioeconomic conditions; uncertainty analysis; urban area; urban climate; article; China; city; climate change; global climate; heat wave; India; lake; North America; probability; simulation; Southern Europe; uncertainty; China; Great Lakes [North America]; India; Southern Europe
来源期刊	Nature Communications
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/250673
作者单位	Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, United States; National Center for Supercomputing Applications, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, United States; Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zheng Z.,Zhao L.,Oleson K.W.. Large model structural uncertainty in global projections of urban heat waves[J],2021,12(1).
APA	Zheng Z.,Zhao L.,&Oleson K.W..(2021).Large model structural uncertainty in global projections of urban heat waves.Nature Communications,12(1).
MLA	Zheng Z.,et al."Large model structural uncertainty in global projections of urban heat waves".Nature Communications 12.1(2021).