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DOI	10.1038/s41467-021-25182-6
	Nonlinear shifts in infectious rust disease due to climate change
	Dudney J.; Willing C.E.; Das A.J.; Latimer A.M.; Nesmith J.C.B.; Battles J.J.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2041-1723
卷号	12 期号:1
英文摘要	Range shifts of infectious plant disease are expected under climate change. As plant diseases move, emergent abiotic-biotic interactions are predicted to modify their distributions, leading to unexpected changes in disease risk. Evidence of these complex range shifts due to climate change, however, remains largely speculative. Here, we combine a long-term study of the infectious tree disease, white pine blister rust, with a six-year field assessment of drought-disease interactions in the southern Sierra Nevada. We find that climate change between 1996 and 2016 moved the climate optimum of the disease into higher elevations. The nonlinear climate change-disease relationship contributed to an estimated 5.5 (4.4–6.6) percentage points (p.p.) decline in disease prevalence in arid regions and an estimated 6.8 (5.8–7.9) p.p. increase in colder regions. Though climate change likely expanded the suitable area for blister rust by 777.9 (1.0–1392.9) km2 into previously inhospitable regions, the combination of host-pathogen and drought-disease interactions contributed to a substantial decrease (32.79%) in mean disease prevalence between surveys. Specifically, declining alternate host abundance suppressed infection probabilities at high elevations, even as climatic conditions became more suitable. Further, drought-disease interactions varied in strength and direction across an aridity gradient—likely decreasing infection risk at low elevations while simultaneously increasing infection risk at high elevations. These results highlight the critical role of aridity in modifying host-pathogen-drought interactions. Variation in aridity across topographic gradients can strongly mediate plant disease range shifts in response to climate change. © 2021, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; disease prevalence; drought; host-pathogen interaction; infectious disease; rust disease; Article; blister rust; climate change; Cronartium ribicola; drought; fungus; host pathogen interaction; host range; infection risk; Nevada; nonhuman; prevalence; vapor pressure; white pine; Basidiomycetes; climate; forest; microbiology; plant; plant disease; Ribes; California; Sierra Nevada [California]; United States; Cronartium ribicola; water; Basidiomycota; Climate; Climate Change; Droughts; Forests; Host-Pathogen Interactions; Plant Diseases; Plants; Prevalence; Ribes; Water
来源期刊	Nature Communications
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/250635
作者单位	Department of Plant Sciences, UC Davis, Davis, CA, United States; Department of Environmental Science Policy and Management, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States; Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States; U.S. Geological Survey, Western Ecological Research Center, Three Rivers, CA, United States; Sierra Nevada Network Inventory & Monitoring Program, Three Rivers, CA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Dudney J.,Willing C.E.,Das A.J.,et al. Nonlinear shifts in infectious rust disease due to climate change[J],2021,12(1).
APA	Dudney J.,Willing C.E.,Das A.J.,Latimer A.M.,Nesmith J.C.B.,&Battles J.J..(2021).Nonlinear shifts in infectious rust disease due to climate change.Nature Communications,12(1).
MLA	Dudney J.,et al."Nonlinear shifts in infectious rust disease due to climate change".Nature Communications 12.1(2021).