气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Uncertainty in El Niño-like warming and California precipitation changes linked by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41467-021-26797-5
	Uncertainty in El Niño-like warming and California precipitation changes linked by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation
	Dong L.; Leung L.R.; Song F.; Lu J.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2041-1723
卷号	12 期号:1
英文摘要	Marked uncertainty in California (CA) precipitation projections challenges their use in adaptation planning in the region already experiencing severe water stress. Under global warming, a westerly jet extension in the North Pacific analogous to the El Niño-like teleconnection has been suggested as a key mechanism for CA winter precipitation changes. However, this teleconnection has not been reconciled with the well-known El Niño-like warming response or the controversial role of internal variability in the precipitation uncertainty. Here we find that internal variability contributes > 70% and > 50% of uncertainty in the CA precipitation changes and the El Niño-like warming, respectively, based on analysis of 318 climate simulations from several multi-model and large ensembles. The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation plays a key role in each contribution and in connecting the two via the westerly jet extension. This unifying understanding of the role of internal variability in CA precipitation provides critical guidance for reducing and communicating uncertainty to inform adaptation planning. © 2021, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	adaptation; extension; teleconnection; warming; westerly; article; California; climate; oscillation; precipitation; simulation; uncertainty; warming; California; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (North); United States
来源期刊	Nature Communications
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/250579
作者单位	Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Dong L.,Leung L.R.,Song F.,et al. Uncertainty in El Niño-like warming and California precipitation changes linked by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation[J],2021,12(1).
APA	Dong L.,Leung L.R.,Song F.,&Lu J..(2021).Uncertainty in El Niño-like warming and California precipitation changes linked by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation.Nature Communications,12(1).
MLA	Dong L.,et al."Uncertainty in El Niño-like warming and California precipitation changes linked by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation".Nature Communications 12.1(2021).