气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Quantifying uncertainty in aggregated climate change risk assessments

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DOI	10.1038/s41467-021-27491-2
	Quantifying uncertainty in aggregated climate change risk assessments
	Harrington L.J.; Schleussner C.-F.; Otto F.E.L.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2041-1723
卷号	12 期号:1
英文摘要	High-level assessments of climate change impacts aggregate multiple perils into a common framework. This requires incorporating multiple dimensions of uncertainty. Here we propose a methodology to transparently assess these uncertainties within the ‘Reasons for Concern’ framework, using extreme heat as a case study. We quantitatively discriminate multiple dimensions of uncertainty, including future vulnerability and exposure to changing climate hazards. High risks from extreme heat materialise after 1.5–2 °C and very high risks between 2–3.5 °C of warming. Risks emerge earlier if global assessments were based on national risk thresholds, underscoring the need for stringent mitigation to limit future extreme heat risks. © 2021, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; quantitative analysis; risk assessment; vulnerability; climate change; extreme hot weather; quantitative analysis; review; risk assessment; uncertainty; warming
来源期刊	Nature Communications
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/250557
作者单位	New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, 6012, New Zealand; Climate Analytics, Berlin, 10969, Germany; IRI THESys, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany; Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Harrington L.J.,Schleussner C.-F.,Otto F.E.L.. Quantifying uncertainty in aggregated climate change risk assessments[J],2021,12(1).
APA	Harrington L.J.,Schleussner C.-F.,&Otto F.E.L..(2021).Quantifying uncertainty in aggregated climate change risk assessments.Nature Communications,12(1).
MLA	Harrington L.J.,et al."Quantifying uncertainty in aggregated climate change risk assessments".Nature Communications 12.1(2021).