气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessing the energy transition in China towards carbon neutrality with a probabilistic framework

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DOI	10.1038/s41467-021-27671-0
	Assessing the energy transition in China towards carbon neutrality with a probabilistic framework
	Zhang S.; Chen W.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	2041-1723
卷号	13 期号:1
英文摘要	A profound transformation of China’s energy system is required to achieve carbon neutrality. Here, we couple Monte Carlo analysis with a bottom-up energy-environment-economy model to generate 3,000 cases with different carbon peak times, technological evolution pathways and cumulative carbon budgets. The results show that if emissions peak in 2025, the carbon neutrality goal calls for a 45–62% electrification rate, 47–78% renewable energy in primary energy supply, 5.2–7.9 TW of solar and wind power, 1.5–2.7 PWh of energy storage usage and 64–1,649 MtCO2 of negative emissions, and synergistically reducing approximately 80% of local air pollutants compared to the present level in 2050. The emission peak time and cumulative carbon budget have significant impacts on the decarbonization pathways, technology choices, and transition costs. Early peaking reduces welfare losses and prevents overreliance on carbon removal technologies. Technology breakthroughs, production and consumption pattern changes, and policy enhancement are urgently required to achieve carbon neutrality. © 2022, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	alternative energy; assessment method; carbon budget; electrification; energy storage; Monte Carlo analysis; probability; China
来源期刊	Nature Communications
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/250537
作者单位	Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang S.,Chen W.. Assessing the energy transition in China towards carbon neutrality with a probabilistic framework[J],2022,13(1).
APA	Zhang S.,&Chen W..(2022).Assessing the energy transition in China towards carbon neutrality with a probabilistic framework.Nature Communications,13(1).
MLA	Zhang S.,et al."Assessing the energy transition in China towards carbon neutrality with a probabilistic framework".Nature Communications 13.1(2022).