气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A review of past changes in extratropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere and what can be learned for the future

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DOI	10.1002/wcc.680
	A review of past changes in extratropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere and what can be learned for the future
	Raible C.C.; Pinto J.G.; Ludwig P.; Messmer M.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1757-7780
卷号	12 期号:1
英文摘要	Extratropical cyclones, a major phenomenon of the mid-latitude atmospheric dynamics, show strong variability over a range of time scales. Future projections hint at an increase of cyclonic intensity and the associated precipitation, an important fact to be considered when developing future risk assessments. This review presents a first overview of studies which (a) puts the current variability and projected future climate changes of extratropical cyclone characteristics in a long-term perspective, (b) shows connections to natural external forcings, and (c) deepens our understanding of cyclone intensification processes for past climate periods. We summarize the current state of knowledge for two periods in the past—the last millennium and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21,000 years ago). For these two periods, the sparse information from paleo proxy archives are compared to climate modeling results on global and regional scales. For example, strong changes of the climate mean state, induced by orbital forcing and associated feedbacks, show strong effects on different cyclone characteristics, for example, a southward shift of the storm tracks over the North Atlantic during the LGM. Other findings indicate that dynamic processes could play at least an equally important role as thermodynamic processes for the variations of cyclone-induced precipitation. This is in contrast to the projected future changes in cyclone-related precipitation, which are driven primarily by thermodynamic processes. The review demonstrates how a paleoclimatic view can foster an extended process understanding and be instrumental to better understand future changes in extratropical cyclones and associated characteristics. This article is categorized under: Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Modern Climate Change. © 2020 Wiley Periodicals LLC.
关键词	climate change extratropical cyclones internal climate variability Last Glacial Maximum Last Millennium
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Risk assessment; Storms; Atmospheric dynamics; Cyclone intensifications; Extratropical cyclones; Last Glacial Maximum; Long-term perspective; Northern Hemispheres; Process understanding; Thermodynamic process; Climate change; climate modeling; climate variation; extratropical cyclone; Last Glacial Maximum; Northern Hemisphere; paleoclimate; risk assessment; thermodynamics
来源期刊	Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/249681
作者单位	Climate and Environmental Physics and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; School of Earth Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Raible C.C.,Pinto J.G.,Ludwig P.,et al. A review of past changes in extratropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere and what can be learned for the future[J],2021,12(1).
APA	Raible C.C.,Pinto J.G.,Ludwig P.,&Messmer M..(2021).A review of past changes in extratropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere and what can be learned for the future.Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change,12(1).
MLA	Raible C.C.,et al."A review of past changes in extratropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere and what can be learned for the future".Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 12.1(2021).