气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Modeling myths: On DICE and dynamic realism in integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation

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DOI	10.1002/wcc.698
	Modeling myths: On DICE and dynamic realism in integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation
	Grubb M.; Wieners C.; Yang P.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1757-7780
卷号	12 期号:3
英文摘要	We analyze how stylized Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), and specifically the widely-used Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model (DICE), represent the cost of emissions abatement. Many assume temporal independence—that abatement costs in one period are not affected by prior abatement. We contrast this with three dimensions of dynamic realism in emitting systems: (i) inertia, (ii) induced innovation, and (iii) path dependence. We review key evidence from the last quarter century on each of these three components. Studies of stock lifetime, dynamics of diffusion and past transitions suggest typical transition timescales of at least 20–40 years for the bulk emitting systems. The evidence that substantial innovation is induced by both prices and market deployment is unambiguous. Finally, both data and a rapidly growing literature demonstrate substantial path dependence in general, and specifically “carbon lock-in and lock-out.” Some stylized models in the past decade have incorporated technology learning, and others have considered inertia, but the combination of these factors is important and not yet evident. More complex hybrid IAMs with technology-rich energy-system models incorporate these factors, but their complexity has limited the wider understanding and influence of their underlying insights. Few if any global models fully represent path dependence. We conclude with likely implications drawing upon the empirical and modeling evidence accumulated, including results from extending DICE with a highly stylized representation of such dynamic factors. This suggests that dynamic interdependencies could multiply several-fold the optimal level of initial abatement expenditure. This is because early abatement then also directly facilitates subsequent emission savings. The diversity of dynamic linkages across sectors and technologies also implies more nuanced policy than a single global carbon price. Thus, the issues explored in this review can radically change the general policy conclusions drawn from models, which, like DICE, neglect dynamic realism. This article is categorized under: Climate Economics > Aggregation Techniques for Impacts and Mitigation Costs. © 2021 The Authors. WIREs Climate Change published by Wiley Periodicals LLC.
关键词	climate change DICE induced innovation integrated assessment models path dependence pollution abatement control expenditure
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Carbon; Climate change; Costs; Economics; Locks (fasteners); Aggregation techniques; Climate change mitigation; Emissions abatements; Energy system model; Integrated assessment models; Mitigation costs; Technology learning; Three dimensions; Climate models; abatement cost; climate change; innovation; integrated approach; modeling; path analysis; pollution control
来源期刊	Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/249644
作者单位	UCL Bartlett School of Energy, Environment & Resources, University College London, London, United Kingdom; College of International Studies, Kyung-Hee University, Seoul, South Korea; Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; UCL Bartlett School of Construction and Project Management, University College London, London, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Grubb M.,Wieners C.,Yang P.. Modeling myths: On DICE and dynamic realism in integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation[J],2021,12(3).
APA	Grubb M.,Wieners C.,&Yang P..(2021).Modeling myths: On DICE and dynamic realism in integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation.Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change,12(3).
MLA	Grubb M.,et al."Modeling myths: On DICE and dynamic realism in integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation".Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 12.3(2021).