气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate change may impair electricity generation and economic viability of future Amazon hydropower

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DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102383
	Climate change may impair electricity generation and economic viability of future Amazon hydropower
	Almeida R.M.; Fleischmann A.S.; Brêda J.P.F.; Cardoso D.S.; Angarita H.; Collischonn W.; Forsberg B.; García-Villacorta R.; Hamilton S.K.; Hannam P.M.; Paiva R.; Poff N.L.; Sethi S.A.; Shi Q.; Gomes C.P.; Flecker A.S.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	71
英文摘要	Numerous hydropower facilities are under construction or planned in tropical and subtropical rivers worldwide. While dams are typically designed considering historic river discharge regimes, climate change is likely to induce large-scale alterations in river hydrology. Here we analyze how future climate change will affect river hydrology, electricity generation, and economic viability of > 350 potential hydropower dams across the Amazon, Earth's largest river basin and a global hotspot for future hydropower development. Midcentury projections for the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios show basin-wide reductions of river discharge (means, 13 and 16%, respectively) and hydropower generation (19 and 27%). Declines are sharper for dams in Brazil, which harbors 60% of the proposed projects. Climate change will cause more frequent low-discharge interruption of hydropower generation and less frequent full-capacity operation. Consequently, the minimum electricity sale price for projects to break even more than doubles at many proposed dams, rendering much of future Amazon hydropower less competitive than increasingly lower cost renewable sources such as wind and solar. Climate-smart power systems will be fundamental to support environmentally and financially sustainable energy development in hydropower-dependent regions. © 2021
关键词	Energy policy Environmental change Hydroelectricity Levelized cost of electricity Streamflow
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; electricity generation; energy resource; price determination; resource development; river discharge; sustainability; Amazonia
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/249575
作者单位	Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Cornell UniversityNY, United States; Institute of Hydraulic Research, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil; Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell UniversityNY, United States; Department of Biology, Stanford UniversityCA, United States; Vermont Department of Environmental ConservationVT, United States; W.K. Kellogg Biological Station and Department of Integrative Biology, Michigan State UniversityMI, United States; Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, NY, United States; Institute for Sustainable Energy Policy, Johns Hopkins UniversityMD, United States; Department of Biology, Colorado State UniversityCO, United States; Institute for Applied Ecology, University of Canberra, ACT, Australia; U.S. Geological Survey, NY Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Natural Resources, Cornell UniversityNY, United States; Institute for Computational Sustainability, Cornell UniversityNY, United States; School of E...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Almeida R.M.,Fleischmann A.S.,Brêda J.P.F.,et al. Climate change may impair electricity generation and economic viability of future Amazon hydropower[J],2021,71.
APA	Almeida R.M..,Fleischmann A.S..,Brêda J.P.F..,Cardoso D.S..,Angarita H..,...&Flecker A.S..(2021).Climate change may impair electricity generation and economic viability of future Amazon hydropower.Global Environmental Change,71.
MLA	Almeida R.M.,et al."Climate change may impair electricity generation and economic viability of future Amazon hydropower".Global Environmental Change 71(2021).