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| DOI | 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2020.117545 |
| Monte Carlo analyses of the uncertainties in the predictions from global tropospheric ozone models: Tropospheric burdens and seasonal cycles | |
| Derwent R.G. | |
| 发表日期 | 2020 |
| ISSN | 1352-2310 |
| 卷号 | 231 |
| 英文摘要 | Because ozone is a highly reactive trace gas, estimates of its contribution to climate forcing must rely on global chemistry-transport models. These models employ many uncertain input parameters representing the sources and sinks for tropospheric ozone. Ten thousand quasi-randomly Monte Carlo sampled model runs employing a zonally-averaged global ozone model were completed and the output uncertainties were estimated in the burdens and turnovers of methane, carbon monoxide and ozone, together with the uncertainties in the ozone seasonal cycles. Multiple regression was then used to attribute the uncertainty in each output metric to each of the 183 uncertain input parameters which represented emission source sectors, chemical and photochemical rate coefficients, dry deposition velocities and biases in temperature and water vapour concentrations. We have tentatively identified sixteen chemical and photochemical rate coefficients, eight emission source sectors, ozone dry deposition and biases in temperature and water vapour as contributing most to the uncertainties in our chosen output metrics. Ten out of the sixteen chemical processes turned out to be the most important processes in the fast, photochemical balance of the troposphere. Emissions from NOx, methane, carbon monoxide and isoprene had the potential to contribute in a major way to model output uncertainties. There are, however, many limitations to our study, not the least being our use of a two-dimensional (altitude-latitude) ozone model. We have not been able to resolve the apparent conflicts between our model and the observations of ozone seasonal cycles and these must await a more rigorous treatment of tropospheric ozone sources and sinks before they can be resolved. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd |
| 关键词 | Global modelsMonte Carlo uncertainty analysisTropospheric burdensTropospheric ozone |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| scopus关键词 | Carbon monoxide; Climate models; Deposition; Methane; Monte Carlo methods; Ozone; Troposphere; Water vapor; Dry deposition velocities; Emission sources; Global chemistry transport model; Monte carlo analysis; Multiple regressions; Ozone dry deposition; Rate coefficients; Tropospheric ozone; Uncertainty analysis; carbon monoxide; methane; ozone; carbon monoxide; dry deposition; isoprene; Monte Carlo analysis; ozone; pollutant source; prediction; seasonal variation; troposphere; uncertainty analysis; altitude; Article; chemical reaction; concentration (parameter); dry deposition; latitude; Monte Carlo method; multiple regression; photochemistry; prediction; priority journal; seasonal variation; temperature; troposphere; turnover rate; uncertainty; water vapor |
| 来源期刊 | ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT
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| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/249162 |
| 作者单位 | Rdscientific, Newbury, United Kingdom |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Derwent R.G.. Monte Carlo analyses of the uncertainties in the predictions from global tropospheric ozone models: Tropospheric burdens and seasonal cycles[J],2020,231. |
| APA | Derwent R.G..(2020).Monte Carlo analyses of the uncertainties in the predictions from global tropospheric ozone models: Tropospheric burdens and seasonal cycles.ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT,231. |
| MLA | Derwent R.G.."Monte Carlo analyses of the uncertainties in the predictions from global tropospheric ozone models: Tropospheric burdens and seasonal cycles".ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT 231(2020). |
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